供应链脉搏检查：贸易增长分叉

Supply Chain Pulse Check: Bifurcating trade growth Approaching year-end,a bifurcation in trade continues. Broad ocean market volumes arefine (+5% globally) while theTranspacific Eastboundremained soft (-8%, vs -12% inAugust). Aircargo revenuesturned negative YoY in October, with modestly positive volumesfailing to offset rate pressure.Ocean ratesrebounded slightly from their October lows, ascarriers attempted to impose general rate increases into contract negotiations, however wedoubt these can stick against still-high capacity growth.Meanwhile, liner ordering activity Alex Irving, CFA+44 20 7676 7044alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com David Vernon+1 917 344 8333david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com Antoine Madre+33 1 58 98 74 52antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com Access our downloadable database here. Justine Weiss+1 917 344 8433justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com Robust volumes,US the weak spot.Global trade volumes increased by 3.6% YoY inAugust, led by a 7% rise in emerging market exports while the US declined (-3.6%). On themost recent forward-looking indicators, October PMIs in China fell (-0.6pt to 50.6) as did Ocean: volumes +5% inSeptember, rates snapping a losing streak… but for howlong?Volumes increased +5% In September, up from +3% in August, with YTD growth+4%. This was driven by strong Asia-to-Europe flows, offsetting an 8% decline on theTranspacific Eastbound. Rates have bounced off October lows, as carriers try to pushincreases into contracting season. Yet amid supply builds and a rising risk of Red Seatransits on Asia-Europe (given increased activity from CMA CGM), we expect further Orderbook expands, again and again.Disproving our expectation that tariffs wouldfinally curb new vessel orders, orders have kept coming thick and fast. The orderbook grew+6% during Q3, with new orders equivalent to 3.4% of the in-service fleet and double therate of deliveries. We project the fleet to grow by +47% from 2019 to 2026, with more than Airfreight:Revenue growth turns negative.Volumes are still positive YoY, growingmid single digit. However rate pressure is apparent, and this is pushing industry revenues Dropping off from recent spot truck rate (ex. fuel) pickup, and expectunderwhelming ‘26 improvement.Sep. and Oct. spot truck rates (ex. fuel) +LSD YoY (and +MoM) reflected capacity exit benefits, as these were highest YoY rates since tariff-inducedpull-forward era earlier this yr, and there were no such major vol. boosts unfolding. Whilecapacity exits likely accelerated on stricter CDL oversight / ELP enforcement, benefitsappear to be easing: Nov. spot rate ~flat YoY, also down MoM (atypical vs. ‘24 and ‘23trends). Our recent industry expert discussion pointed to ‘26 just a bit better than ‘25 on BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS InEurope, we rate DSV Outperform, DHL and Kuehne+Nagel Market-Perform, and Maersk Underperform. InNorth America,we rate UNP Outperform, NSC Outperform, CSX Market-Perform, CNI/CNR.CN Market-Perform, CP/CP.CN Market-Perform,CHRW Market-Perform, JBHT Market-Perform, UPS Outperform, and FDX Market-Perform. EUROPE DSV (Outperform, TP DKK1,800.00) DSV is our top pick in European Logistics. This is principally becausewe see synergiesas inadequately reflected in valuations.DSV has a superbtrack record of synergy realizationin M&A across five dealsin the last twenty years, and weexpect it to repeat this successin its latest, largest deal for DB Schenker. We expect thisacquisition to close in Q2 2025, following which DSV should become thelargest freight forwarder by both airfreight andseafreight volumes, and we see it as delivering post-synergy (2028) EPS of DKK 100+. At that point, share buybacks shouldrestart; we see the company capable of repurchasing DKK24bn of shares p.a., vs a current market cap of DKK335,180m. As a DHL (Market-Perform, TP €42.80) DHL is really five logistics companies under a single corporate umbrella. Itsearnings arelevered to ecommerce and world trade: c. 80% of EBIT to the former, 70% to the latter, and 60% to both. >50% of earningscomes fromExpress: a healthy three-player oligopolywith supportive pricing and GDP-plus structural growth (trade +ecommerce). Theasset-heavy nature of this division gives it meaningful operating leverage to volumes, however thereis more flex than may at first be obvious with~25% of capacity on short-term lease. The group is particularlylevered to aneventual B2B volume rebound, and when that happensasset utilization should rise, boosting margins. We think this willrequire some improvement in challenged customer verticals, such as automotive, cap goods and tech. Theother potentialupside opportunity is a break-up: DHL has begun a simplification project of unpicking the domestic business from the Kuehne+Nagel (Market-Perform, TP CHF155.00) Kuehne+Nagel is the other large listed pure-play freight forwarder,alongside DSV. It follows a different strategy, focused on organic growth and with high dividend payouts. However,executionin 2024