新兴市场电信运营商能否借T-Mobile之势？

S P O T L I G H T Global TMT Can EM telcos ride TMUS’ wave? TMUS: #3 US telco (scale andsubscriber base); 2ndmost valuedtelco globally, driven by superiorspectrum/network, product, and We explore potential opportunitiesamong EM operators that couldreplicate TMUS’ re-rating story, Buy-rated Mobily and AMX haveclosest business models/strengthswith clear catalysts for re-rating;MTN and TCELL look attractive for Why read this report? ◆TMUS:#3 US telcobysubscribers;2ndmostvalued telco globallydriven by superior spectrum/network, product,capitalallocation ◆We explore potentialopportunities among EM operators who mayreplicate TMUS’ re-rating story driven by similar factors ◆Buy-ratedMobilyandAMX have closest business models/strengthswith clear catalysts for re-rating; MTNandTCELLlookattractive Leading the charge:T-Mobile has led US telcos in the lastfiveyears, with shares up c60% vs13% for AT&T and down c35% for Verizon and is thesecond-largest telecom stock globally withmarket capof USD237bn. Strong spectrum portfolio, superior network investment and an attractiveconsumer offer has helped drive market share, earnings and FCF growth. TMUSre-rated over the EM read across–no exact comparison but Mobily looks mostattractive:TMUS’ successin the USoffers a playbook to EM peers by which they could see potential catalysts for a TMUS-stylere-rating. We note EM names have performed well YTD, largely helped by broad-basedmacro improvements. But we believe there is still more room for outperformance vs peers and 1.Playing to strengths:TMUS follows a singular approach in making its US operations bestin class. This is the driving factor in TMUS actions, from capexandM&A to its consumeroffer. This can be considered across verticals and regions and MTN could see the most 2.Superior spectrum and network investment:TMUS spent a decade investing in itsinfrastructure ahead of peers. The long-term network superiority approach is key to drivingand sustaining market share gain and earnings growth. MTN, Mobily, and TCELL will likely 3.Focused M&A:Acquiring the right asset at the right price has been critical for TMUS,especially withits2020transformative acquisition of Sprint. It built on its infrastructure andchanged the market dynamics. In market consolidation,investing in theright areas atthe 4.Attractive customer strategy:Focusing on removing customer pain points has boostedTMUS’ customer perception and allowed the group to monetise its best-in-class network, Macro and regulation:This has an overarching impact on EM stocks. Even, if not at theoperators’ discretion, to benefit from a TMUS stylere-rating, there need to be some similaritieson macro and regulatory set-up. We believe Mobily and AMX fit best with TMUS’ macro and Contents Why read this report? Facts and figures Sector valuation Related research Learnings from the West6 TMUS–key performancedrivers Company sections23Mobily (Buy, TP SAR80.00)24MTN Group(Buy, TP ZAR220.00)26Turkcell (Buy, TP TRY140.00)28America Movil(Buy, TP MXN25.00)29T-Mobile (Buy, TP USD285.00)31 Disclosure appendix Disclaimer Facts and figures 1% 10 Sector valuation Related research Recommended reading... ◆LatAm Telecoms:Solid Brazil outlook drives our Street-high TPs for AMX, VIVT3, andTIMS3; upgrade TIMS3 to Buy,05-Nov-2025◆Naspers and Prosus:Maintain Buy: M&A drive into France, 29-Sep-2025◆Saudi Telecom Market:B2B continues to drive market growth momentum, 29-Sep-2025◆MTN Group (MTN SJ):Key takeaway from call with expert on DOJ, 15-Sep-2025 Learnings from the West ◆TMUS has led US peers, driven by its spectrum portfolio/network,strong consumeroffer and disciplined capital allocation policy ◆EM operators could benefit from following TMUS’ approach across ◆We likeBuy-ratedMobily, AMX, MTN Group and Turkcell in thiscontext and see Mobily and AMX with clearest catalysts for re-rating Executive summary We review T-Mobile’s strong market positioning and share outperformance vs its US telcopeers, 60% share gain over the lastfiveyears vs 13% for AT&T and-35% for Verizon. Despitethe recent share pullback at TMUS, it remains one of the largest market cap operators globally,with a USD237bn market cap–the secondmost valued telecom stock globally, quite unusual While no one reason fully explains why TMUS has outperformed vs peers, we do find severalkey areas that have contributed toitsstronger performance, be it through actual performance, TMUS outperforms peers andremainsamarket All of thesecharacteristics have made TMUS, which is the third largest operator by scale and TMUS’s relativeoutperformance is reflected The purpose of this analysis is to understand if the actions TMUS has taken can be adopted byother EM telcos and if there is scope for company specific valuation multiple expansion. InExhibit5, we identify where operators have similar or different characteristics to TMUS.Positive similarities to TMUS are indicated by the green scale,andthe darker green highlightst