来自最终前沿的技术溢出：美国航天创新的长期视角

Luisa Corrado1Stefano Grassi2Aldo Paolillo3 About the National Institute of Economic and Social Research The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is Britain's longest establishedindependent research institute, founded in 1938. The vision of our founders was to carry outresearch to improve understanding of the economic and social forces that affect people’s lives,and the ways in which policy can bring about change. Over eighty years later, this remains National Institute of Economic and Social Research2 Dean Trench StLondon SW1P 3HET: +44 (0)20 7222 7665 This paper was first published inOctober2025 Competing Interest Statement: The views expressed in this paper are based on research andare not attributed to the organizations to which the researchers are affiliated. There are no © National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2025 Contents 1Introduction1.1Literature Review. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.2Contribution and findings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Patent Data and Citation Network2.1Description of Patent Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.2Network‐Based Spillover Measurement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.3An Illustrative Example. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Baseline Model Description4Model Solution and Estimation A1, C5, E00, O10. Aerospace, Space Economy, Growth. Abstract Recent studies suggest that space activities generate significant economic benefits. This pa‐per attempts to quantify these effects by modeling both business cycle and long‐run effectsdriven by space sector activities. We develop a model in which technologies are shaped byboth a dedicated R&D sector and spillovers from space‐sector innovations. Using U.S. datafrom the 1960s to the present day, we analyze patent grants to distinguish between space Technology Spillovers from the Final Frontier: A Long‐Run Luisa Corrado†, Stefano Grassi‡and Aldo Paolillo21st October 2025 Introduction The space sector has experienced significant change, transitioning from its Cold War origins,characterized by public‐sector‐led geopolitical rivalry, to a dynamic, commercially driven sector.The early space race sparked groundbreaking technological advancements in space transporta‐ tion systems, satellites, and communication systems, with lasting impacts on scientific researchand technology, see Forbes (2020). For instance, Fishman (2020) reports that the Apollo pro‐ gram required the development of a large number of new technologies such as the world’s largest rocket, the world’s smallest and fastest computer, the world’s first high‐speed data network,space suits, and space food. The pursuit of space exploration has also led to revolutionary ad‐ vancements in physics, chemistry, material sciences, and engineering, many of which have been of space activities requires a comprehensive evaluation of their technological and economic con‐ This paper examines the technological and economic effects of space activities in the U.S. fromthe 1960s to the present day, focusing on the diffusion of space‐driven innovations across thebroader economy.2In particular, we examine how technologies originating in the space sec‐tor diffuse across other sectors, driving productivity gains that contribute to broader economicgrowth. For instance, advancements in telecommunication systems, such as satellite‐based net‐ The economic effects of space activities can be classified as direct and indirect. Direct effectsare the innovations generated in the space sector for the space sector, such as new satellitetechnologies or new launch vehicle systems (O’Connor et al., 2019, Voigt et al., 2007). Indir‐ect effects, or spillovers, are innovations generated in the space sector, such as solar cells ormemory foam, that find applications in other sectors. The economic effects of space activitiescan also be distinguished into business cycle effects—stemming from increases in employment, Literature Review The economic effects of space activities can be analyzed from both a microeconomic and a mac‐roeconomic perspective. The microeconomic approach examines how space‐related innovationand investment influence specific industries and regions, while the macroeconomic perspectivestudies their impact on broader economic aggregates. From a microeconomic perspective, Jaffeet al. (1998) examine NASA’s patenting activity between 1963 and 1994, and analyze trends in Kantor and Whalley (2025) use historical U.S. county‐industry data and a patent‐based meas‐ure of space technology capability to assess the impact of NASA’s R&D investments on localeconomic outcomes. They find that NASA activity led to greater growth in manufacturing value Their microeconomic focus is on the effects of NASA’s contractor spending on local manufac‐turing, providing insight into how space‐relat