三季报超出预期；出行需求保持坚挺

3Q results beat;traveldemandremains solid Target PriceUS$83.00(Previous TPUS$76.00)Up/Downside17.1%Current PriceUS$70.89 Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (18Nov)3Q25results: total revenue wasRMB18.4bn, up15.5% YoY,1% better than both our forecast and Bloombergconsensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) wasRMB6.1bn,5/6%betterthan our estimates and consensus,thanks to better-than-expectedoperating leverage.Non-GAAP NP of RMB19.2bn was significantly ahead ofconsensus at RMB5.6bn, driven by one-off gainsfromthe saleof partial stakeinMakeMyTrip.TCOM’s overseas expansion is on track,with balancedinvestment and revenue growth trajectory, and this should bring long-term valueto TCOM, in our view.To account for more robust-than-expectedinternationalbusinessrevenue growth and better-than-expected operating efficiency ChinaInternet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Solid internationalbusinessrevenue growth to sustain.1) For domesticbusiness, management notedhealthybooking volume growth QTD in4Q25,withdomestichotel booking volume growth standing at low-teens YoY, andtransportation ticketing volume growth at low-single digit YoY. 2) Outboundair ticket and hotel bookings on TCOM’splatformrecovered to more than140%of the2019 level in3Q25,and implied YoY volume/revenuegrowthof 20%/mid-teens%;we are looking formid-teensYoY revenue growth foroutbound travel business in4Q25E. 3) For pure international business,Trip.com accounted for13%of group-level revenue in3Q25, andrevenue Domestic and outbound business saw solid improvement in operatingefficiency.TCOM’s non-GAAP OPM for3Q25was33.4%,1.4ppts betterthanconsensus,driven bythe beat in GPMby0.8ppts, andmore optimized-than-expected operating expenses. TCOM noted aYoY OPM expansion indomestic and outbound business,andguided to drive business expansionof Trip.com in an efficient way, which in our viewheraldsbalanced revenue Source: FactSet Results comparison and changes in forecast We lift2025-2027E revenue/OP forecast by 1-5%/0-5%, to account for more robust-than-expectedinternational business revenue growth and better-than-expected operating Driven by the increase in earnings forecast andaroll forward of valuation windowto 2026E,we raiseour DCF-basedTP by 9% to US$83.0(was US$76.0), translating into20x2026E Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part,certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensationwas, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGMRatings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecuritie