年级膨胀的影响：使用高中GPA和ACT成绩评估大学一年级GPA的预测

The Implications of Grade Inflation:Evaluating the Prediction of First-Year EDGAR I. SANCHEZ Conclusions Grade inflation is a nuanced phenomenon that has important implications for educationaloutcomes. This study shows that while high school GPA (HSGPA) remains an importantpredictor of student success in college, its predictive strength can be diluted in the presence ofgrade inflation. Practically speaking, high GPAs from schools with a history of grade inflationshould be interpreted with caution—these students may not be as college-ready as their GPAs So What? This study has some key implications for stakeholders, including students and parents,educators, admissions officers, policymakers, and researchers. Students and parents shouldunderstand that a high school GPA may not accurately represent a student’s knowledge andskills. Parents with children at schools with a history of grade inflation should supplementevidence of their child’s educational preparation through standardized tests or other Now What? Given the evidence that grade inflation has made high school GPA a less reliable indicator ofstudent academic readiness, it is important for students (along with their parents) to understandand appropriately interpret high school GPA so that they can grasp their true academicstrengths and readiness. Colleges should read applications with an understanding that an Afrom one school may not mean the same level of content mastery as an A from another school About the Author Acknowledgments The author would like to thank Jill McVey, Shichao Wang,and Ty Cruce for their comments on previous drafts of this Edgar I. Sanchez, PhD Dr. Sanchez is a principal research scientist at ACT,where he studies postsecondary admissions, nationaltesting programs, test preparation efficacy, andintervention effectiveness. Throughout his career, Dr.Sanchez has focused both on studying the transition Introduction The phenomenon of grade inflation, which is characterized by an increase in high school gradeswithout a corresponding increase in academic achievement, has been a persistent andcontinuing concern in education over the past decade (Sanchez & Moore, 2022). Grade inflationcan be particularly troubling in the context of college admissions, where high school GPA(HSGPA) is used as one (and often the most important) indicator of academic readiness for Zhang and Sanchez (2013) used hierarchical linear modeling to estimate school-specific effectsfor annual grade inflation or deflation, revealing significant variation among high schools.Gershenson (2018) points out five important aspects of grade inflation that need to beconsidered by educators, parents, administrators, and policymakers. First, the study argues thatearning a good grade does not necessarily reflect mastery of course content, as many studentswho receive A or B grades fail to demonstrate proficiency on state exams. Second, high schoolgrades and standardized test scores should be viewed as complementary pieces of information,with each providing unique insights into student performance. Third, grade inflation mayperpetuate socioeconomic disparities, as students from affluent backgrounds often receive Griffin and Townsley (2021) investigated the impact of including nonacademic factors such ashomework and employability skills (21st-century skills demonstrated in the classroom) in studentgrades. The teachers examined in this study weighted grades with 70% based on summativeassessments and 30% based on homework and employability skills, which resulted in significantgrade inflation or deflation. In fact, over 60% of students had their grades inflated, with 8% teachers separate academic achievement or content mastery from nonacademic factors ingrading, potentially using standards-based grading systems to provide a clearer picture ofstudents’ content mastery while still communicating employability skills. The authors argue that Sanchez and Moore (2022) provided further evidence of grade inflation both before and afteraccounting for student and school characteristics. This study found that grade inflation was mostprevalent at lower and moderate ACT Composite (ACTC) scores, likely due to the ceiling effectof HSGPA, where students cannot exceed a 4.0 GPA. This study also noted a significantincrease in grade inflation during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. This study alsohighlighted the variability in grading standards across schools, which reduces the comparability Sanchez (2023) examined the evidence of grade inflation across 4 high school subjects—English, math, social studies, and science—from 2010 to 2022. This study revealed a steadyincrease in the percentage of A grades awarded across all subjects, along with a decrease inthe assignment of lower-level letter grades. This study also highlighted disparities in gradeinflation by race/ethnicity, gender, and family income. The study also addressed concerns about Chen and Sanchez (2024) continued this line of