全球经济情报执行摘要关键趋势和风险，2025年9月（英）

Critical trends and risks Released September 2025 (data through August 2025) CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company Disclaimer This report is intended for the purpose of illustrating the broad capabilityofMcKinsey & Company. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or Wealsorecommend that its content not be used for critical decisionmaking without first consulting your McKinsey contact. McKinsey&Companyshall not beresponsible or liable for any decisions made Consumer confidence improved, mainly due to developments in the Consumption in the US picked up, but deceleration continues among Manufacturing PMI rebounded and returned to growth, while JPMorgan Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (Manufacturing) Manufacturing conditions improved to the greatest extend since Service sectors across countries showed mixed performance, drivenmainly by weakening business confidence, which fell to its lowestlevel since 2020 India posted strongest export gains in July, with solid growth in Year-to-date growth is strongest in the eurozone, China, US, and Mexico Eurozone, India, and Brazil drove import gains in July, with Year-to-date growth strongest in US and eurozone. Global seaborne trade steadied in July, with container activity near2025 highs Global port trade1and RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index Global supply chain stress eased in August, stabilizing nearlong-run averages Inbound spot freight rates fell in September, cooling frommid-2025 highs Spot ocean freight rate,1Jan 2022–Sep 2025, USD per 40ft container Outbound freight rates to Shanghai eased in August after June’sThis analysis does not constitute legal or regulatory advice; it is based solely on publicly available information sharp spike Outbound spot ocean freight rate per container,1Jan 2012–Aug 2025, USD Consumer inflation accelerated in the US, while it remained China remains in the deflationary zone, while other emerging Precious metals prices continue to skyrocket, driven mostly by gold Gold prices surged in September Energy prices continued their downward trend as OPEC increased Industrial metals prices moved sideways in September Inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2.4%, while a divergencebetween mid-term and long-term rates has reemerged (last seen in 2022) Food prices continue to rise gradually Equities in US and Japan reached new record highs, while Chinaand Brazil grew more quickly; other markets moved sideways Volatility in financial markets remains under control The cost of capital remains persistently elevated, driven by higher Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to bolster growth as labormarket slows; Russia Central bank maintains dovish stance