全球经济情报执行摘要全球总结报告，2025年9月（英）

Global Summary Report Released September 2025 (data through August 2025) CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company Disclaimer This report is intended for the purpose of illustrating the broad capabilityofMcKinsey & Company. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, orreproduced for distribution outside the clientorganizationwithout McKinsey Wealsorecommend that its content not be used for critical decisionmakingwithout first consulting your McKinsey contact. McKinsey& Companyshallnot beresponsible or liable for any decisions made by you or your company The overall global outlook is mixed, but aggregate GDP is expected Global economy shows resilience, but growthremains uneven across regions. The United Statesfaces a government shutdown, China’s momentumcontinues to slow, and Europe contends withpersistent political and fiscal turbulence. As the IMFsays, global growth is around 3% but underlyingdata reveals a mixed picture. Central banks are expenditure rising 2.5%, up from the 1.6% initiallyreported. August saw economic activity in China softensomewhat. Industrial output growth declined to 5.2% Manufacturing output continued to slow, dropping from a6.2% expansion in July to 5.7% growth in August.Investment also shrank further in August, with overallfixed-asset investment registering a year-on-yearcontraction of–6.3%, a further decline from July’s–5.2%. In the eurozone, a second estimate confirmedsecond-quarter GDP growth of 0.1% quarter on quarter,down from 0.6% in the first quarter. Compared with theyear-ago quarter, GDP rose by 1.4%. The slowdownwas driven both by an unnaturally high base in the firstquarter and broad-based weakness across eurozonemembers. In the UK, the economy maintained a steady A US federal government shutdown began on October 1(and continues at the time of writing) following animpasse in which the Senate blocked a House stopgapfunding bill and a Democrat alternative. Republicans want a funding extension until November 21, whileDemocrats are seeking to reverse healthcare cuts andextend tax credits for Affordable Care Act health plansset to expire at the end of 2025. Meanwhile, France isalso facing economic turbulence with budgetary woesand an ongoing political crisis weighing on the economy,mainly through weakened business confidence. The unexpected resignation of Prime Minister SébastienLecornu on October 6 triggered fresh uncertainty.President Emmanuel Macron had appointed Lecornu onSeptember 9, following the collapse of François At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve cut USinterest rates by 25 basis points to 4–4.25%, the firstreduction since 2024. Fed chair Jerome Powell framed it as risk management and judged that downside risks to employment have risen as economic activity moderatedin the first half of the year. Similarly, the Bank of Mexicolowered its benchmark interest rate again In September,from 7.75% to 7.5%, as it sought to stimulate activity in Overall, growth remains patchy. US second-quarterGDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, from an initialestimate of 3.0%. The upgrade reflects stronger Meanwhile, China moved to boost growth by rolling out a Central banks are cautiously pivoting toward easing, yet uncertainty surroundingtrade dynamics, tariff policies, and the trajectory of AI markets continues to cloudtheoutlook(1/2) Central-bank interest rates Central banks are cautiously pivoting toward easing, yet uncertainty surroundingtrade dynamics, tariff policies, and the trajectory of AI markets continues to cloud (CPI) stood at 3.8% in August, little changed from priormonths, while core inflation edged down from 3.7% to3.6%. stabilized at 4.7% for the quarter May–July, while India posted the strongest export gains in July, withChina, the eurozone, Mexico, and the US also seeing solid growth. At the same time, the eurozone, India, andBrazil drove import gains in July, with Mexico, US, andRussia weaker. Meanwhile, global seaborne tradesteadied in July, with container activity near 2025 highs.August saw global supply chain stress ease, stabilizing relationships as the primary disruption to global,domestic, and company growth, a small but increasingnumber of executives who responded to the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions citetrade-related changes as a top opportunity for companygrowth. Published September 29, “Economic conditionsoutlook, September 2025” surveyed 799 executives employment growth of around 2% year on year marks one of the strongest expansions since 2000. However,this growth is far from uniform: self-employment has yetto recover to pre-pandemic levels, pointing to structural Globally, business saw a rebound in the manufacturingpurchasing managers’ index (PMI) with a return togrowth, while the services sector expansion continued topick up pace. In the eurozone, the composite PMI for Among the emerging economies, China’s overallsurveyed urban unemployme