降低南非通胀目标的宏观经济影响（英）

Macroeconomic Effects ofLoweringSouth Africa’s Jana Bricco, Mario Mansilla, Delia Velculescu and Philippe Wingender WP/25/237 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are AfricanDepartment Macroeconomic Effects ofLoweringSouth Africa’s Inflation TargetPrepared byJana Bricco, Mario Mansilla, Delia VelculescuandPhilippe Wingender* Authorized for distribution byAndrea Richter Hume IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper explores the macroeconomic implications of lowering the inflation target in anEmerging Market such as South Africausing the IMF’sGlobal Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF).Model-based simulations indicate that lowering the inflation target from 4.5 to 3 percent, as recently announcedby South Africa’s central bank,may entail moderate near-term output costs (measured by the so-called“sacrifice ratio”), while leading to medium-term output gains and lower borrowing costs. The near-term costs RECOMMENDED CITATION:Bricco, J., Mansilla, M., Velculescu, D. & Wingender, P. (2025). MacroeconomicEffects of LoweringSouth Africa’s Inflation Target. IMF Working Paper Paper, African Department, WORKING PAPERS Macroeconomic Effects of Prepared byJana Bricco, Mario Mansilla, Delia VelculescuandPhilippe Contents I.Introduction..................................................................................................................................................3 A.Policy Credibility: Implications of Different Inflation Expectations..............................................................8B.Market Reaction: Implications of Lower Inflation Risk Premia.................................................................13C.Monetary-Fiscal Interactions: Implications of Fiscal Consolidation.........................................................16 V.Conclusions...............................................................................................................................................19 I.Introduction Inflation targeting (IT) frameworkshave beenwidely used around the world,giventheir record of supportingmacroeconomic stability.Initially adopted primarily by advanced economies,suchframeworkshave beenincreasingly used by emerging markets(EMs)and developing economies, with45 countriescurrentlyidentifiedas having an IT monetary regime.2When well designed and credible,IT frameworkshavebeenassociated Note: The classification of emerging markets is from Morgan Stanley’s Emerging Market Index. 1/As cited in Jacome et. al. (2024).AnnexI. South Africa,anearlyITadopter, hasrecently announcedachangeinthe implementation of its framework bytargeting alower inflationrate.South Africaadopted inflation targeting in 2000, establishing a 3–6 percentband as the operational guide for monetary policy.5In 2017,theSouth African Reserve Bank (SARB)refinedthe implementation of its framework byannouncingits preference for targeting the midpoint of its target range A keyquestionishow such a policy change would affect macroeconomic outcomes.There is broad agreementthatonce achieved, low and stable inflation comes with significant macroeconomic benefits: higherconfidencewould support higher growth; stronger purchasing power would disproportionatelybenefit the poor, helpingreduce inequality; lower inflation premiawouldreduce debt-financing costs andthus debt burdens;and lower This paperaims to answer this questionbyapplyingtheIMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model(GIMF) tothe case ofSouth Africa.The GIMF isa muIti-country general-equilibrium frameworkthat capturesmonetary and fiscal policy interactions,whichcan helpidentify the channels of transmissionof such policychangesto the economy andquantify theirmacroeconomic effects.Our modeling analysispoints to three key The paper is organized as follows.SectionIIprovides some context onSouth Africa’s experience withits ITframework,recent studies of its effectiveness, andinternational experiences with lowering the inflationtarget.Section IIIpresents the modeling framework, describing the structure and calibration of the GIMF model as II.Context Inflation targeting was introduced in South Africain 2000.Theframework, announced in August 1999, establisheda 3–6 percent band as theoperational guide for monetary policyintervention. Originally, the authoritiesintendedto narrow the target range from 6SeeHassan (2015) andSARB Conference Paper–Fourteen Years of Inflation Targeting in South Africa and the Challenge of aChanging Mandate (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publications/publication-detail-pages/conference-papers/2015/6889). price surgein 2008and subsequentlydeclined.Between2011–17, inflationhoveredaround the upper end of In 2017,the SARB comm