2025年全球银行业年度回顾：为什么精准而非份量定义银行业的未来

Why precision, not heft,defines the future Banks need to prepare for the nextgrowth curve. Global BankingAnnual Review 2025 showshow a targeted approach This report is a collaborative effort by DariusImregun, Ido Segev, Jon Steitz, Klaus Dallerup,Marti Riba, Miklós Dietz, Pradip Patiath, andSaptarshi Ganguly, with Michael Kirchner,Suhas Gudhe, and Valeria Laszlo, Executive summary In 2024, the global banking sector generated profits of about $1.2 trillion, the highest total everfor any industry. Yet capital markets remain skeptical: Valuations trail the average of all other Why? Markets doubt banks’ recent highs are sustainable, seeing them as tailwind driven.Complicating the picture are macroeconomic forces, including declining interest rates, shifts intechnology and consumer behavior, and the steady siphoning of attractive profit pools by To thrive in this new era, banks need new solutions. Macro-focused, scale-driven strategiesonce promised resilience but no longer suffice. Precision is the decisive differentiator, separatingleading banks from slow movers and reshaping the industry’s performance curve. The “precision toolbox,” applicable to banks of any size, revamps strategy across four —Technology:focusing surgically on technologies with the greatest impact—even withinagentic and gen AI—while scaling back investments that don’t improve workflows, customer —The new consumer:moving beyond broad segmentation to individualization (a “customersegment of one”), delivering hyperpersonalized, data-driven access to products and services —Capital efficiency:shifting from sweeping reallocations to micro-level balance sheetdiscipline—product by product, client by client, down to individual risk-weighted assets—to —Targeted M&A:moving from scale for size’s sake to precision, pursuing deals thatadd reach in specific micromarkets or geographies, or that bring distinct capabilities in Precision, not heft, is the great equalizer. In the age of AI, even smaller banks can capturedisproportionate rewards by embedding precision into every dimension of strategy. This report covers all four elements of the precision toolbox, with an in-depth look at AI and the AI, particularly agentic AI, holds significant promise for banking, with early adopters securing alasting advantage over slow movers. Given these are still the early days of agentic and gen AI,it is imperative to use surgical precision to identify where these technologies can truly generate As AI is implemented across the banking industry, it could bring gross reductions of as much as70 percent in certain cost categories. But because these savings will be partly offset by rising technology costs, the net effect on banks’ aggregate cost base is expected to be a 15 to20 percent decrease. The impact of these savings, while welcome, won’t last. As with earlierinnovations, competition will likely erode the gains for banks and most of the benefits will Longer term, AI is likely to erode bank profitability as consumers start routinely using AI agentsto optimize their finances (for example, automatically moving deposits into higher-yield accounts),which would reduce customer inertia and reshape industry economics. In particular, agentic AI The threat from third-party agents could be material. If banks don’t reposition their businessmodels to adapt, over the next decade or so, bank profit pools globally could decline by$170 billion, or 9 percent. This could reduce the average return on tangible equity (ROTE) by But the effects won’t be felt equally. AI pioneers could see ROTE increase by up to fourpercentage points, using their lead to reinvent models and capture value. Conversely, slow Winning with consumers is also crucial. AI is shaking up how customers and banks interact,raising expectations for seamless, hyperpersonalized experiences, especially among Consumers are more digital, less loyal, and more deliberate in how they choose financialproviders. In the United States, for example, only 4 percent of new checking account applicantschoose their existing bank without first exploring alternatives, down from 25 percent in The transformation has been driven by AI and mobile. Most consumers already use gen AI andexpect their banks to provide these tools as well, while mobile is now the most widely used bankingchannel. Banks that integrate AI-powered insights with mobile-first, personalized experiences, To thrive, banks need to win consumer mind share, embrace mobile as the gateway for engage-ment, and embed AI into customer journeys before challengers seize the advantage. For banks that are used to time-worn, traditional strategies and the pursuit of scale, adoptingprecision won’t be easy, but those that act decisively stand to capture outsize payoffs. In the newera of AI-enabled precision, leadership is not about size—it’s about focus. One would be forgiven for assumingthat the past few years have been mediocre for banking,given headlines about layoffs