2025年全球银行业年鉴：为什么精准而非份量决定了银行业的未来（英）

Global Banking Annual Review 2025 Why precision, not heft,defines the futureof banking Banks need to prepare for the nextgrowth curve. Global BankingAnnual Review 2025 showshow a targeted approachcan help them thrive. This report is a collaborative effort by DariusImregun, Ido Segev, Jon Steitz, Klaus Dallerup,Marti Riba, Miklós Dietz, Pradip Patiath, andSaptarshi Ganguly, with Michael Kirchner,Suhas Gudhe, and Valeria Laszlo,representing views from McKinsey’sFinancial Services Practice. Contents Executive summary The peak before the plateau Banking’s agentic AI era:26Big gains, bigger disruption 42 The new rules of engagement:Adapting to the modern bankingconsumer 56 Contacts 57 Executive summary In 2024, the global banking sector generated profits of about $1.2 trillion, the highest total everfor any industry. Yet capital markets remain skeptical: Valuations trail the average of all otherindustries by nearly 70 percent. Why? Markets doubt banks’ recent highs are sustainable, seeing them as tailwind driven.Complicating the picture are macroeconomic forces, including declining interest rates, shifts intechnology and consumer behavior, and the steady siphoning of attractive profit pools byfintechs, private credit, and wealth managers. This confluence of factors could push banks’ ROEbelow the cost of equity in many markets. To thrive in this new era, banks need new solutions. Macro-focused, scale-driven strategiesonce promised resilience but no longer suffice. Precision is the decisive differentiator, separatingleading banks from slow movers and reshaping the industry’s performance curve. The “precision toolbox,” applicable to banks of any size, revamps strategy across fourcore dimensions: —Technology:focusing surgically on technologies with the greatest impact—even withinagentic and gen AI—while scaling back investments that don’t improve workflows, customerengagement, or business models. —The new consumer:moving beyond broad segmentation to individualization (a “customersegment of one”), delivering hyperpersonalized, data-driven access to products and servicesthat earn trust in an era of fading loyalty. —Capital efficiency:shifting from sweeping reallocations to micro-level balance sheetdiscipline—product by product, client by client, down to individual risk-weighted assets—tofree up trapped capital with precision and put it to work where it earns more. —Targeted M&A:moving from scale for size’s sake to precision, pursuing deals thatadd reach in specific micromarkets or geographies, or that bring distinct capabilities ina specialized area. Precision, not heft, is the great equalizer. In the age of AI, even smaller banks can capturedisproportionate rewards by embedding precision into every dimension of strategy. This report covers all four elements of the precision toolbox, with an in-depth look at AI and thenew consumer. AI, particularly agentic AI, holds significant promise for banking, with early adopters securing alasting advantage over slow movers. Given these are still the early days of agentic and gen AI,it is imperative to use surgical precision to identify where these technologies can truly generateearnings impact, rather than piling into them because of the fear of missing out. As AI is implemented across the banking industry, it could bring gross reductions of as much as70 percent in certain cost categories. But because these savings will be partly offset by rising technology costs, the net effect on banks’ aggregate cost base is expected to be a 15 to20 percent decrease. The impact of these savings, while welcome, won’t last. As with earlierinnovations, competition will likely erode the gains for banks and most of the benefits willaccrue to customers over time. Longer term, AI is likely to erode bank profitability as consumers start routinely using AI agentsto optimize their finances (for example, automatically moving deposits into higher-yield accounts),which would reduce customer inertia and reshape industry economics. In particular, agentic AIcould disrupt deposits and credit card lending by cutting through inertia. The threat from third-party agents could be material. If banks don’t reposition their businessmodels to adapt, over the next decade or so, bank profit pools globally could decline by$170 billion, or 9 percent. This could reduce the average return on tangible equity (ROTE) byone to two percentage points and push many banks below their cost of capital. But the effects won’t be felt equally. AI pioneers could see ROTE increase by up to fourpercentage points, using their lead to reinvent models and capture value. Conversely, slowmovers are likely to see lower profits long term. Winning with consumers is also crucial. AI is shaking up how customers and banks interact,raising expectations for seamless, hyperpersonalized experiences, especially amongyounger generations. Consumers are more digital, less loyal, and more deliberate in how they choose financialp