您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [William Blair]:克服无人值守零售业务中的盗窃和萎缩 - 发现报告

克服无人值守零售业务中的盗窃和萎缩

商贸零售 2025-11-14 William Blair Gnomeshgh文J
报告封面

Introduction.......................................................................................................................3Unattended Retail: Large, Growing Market......................................................................4Electronic Payments and Unattended Retail....................................................................8 We believe Cantaloupe’s pending acquisition by 365 Retail highlights the importance of the grow-ing trend of unattended retail. According to SEC filings, Cantaloupe was in discussions with 36potential acquirers (27 financial, 9 strategic), and received 4 (2 financial, 2 strategic) final propos-als. This report examines unattended retail and highlights some of the key beneficiaries of this At its core, unattended retail refers to a retail environment where consumers can shop for goodsand complete their purchases without the need for face-to-face interaction. Traditionally, unat-tended retail was associated with low-ticket purchases of goods (e.g., chips/soda) at vending ma- Small-ticket purchases continue to dominate volume at vending machines, but selling higher-ticketfresh food or nonconsumables has been successful in the past and is an emerging trend. Further,formats such as micro markets and smart stores are generating significantly more volume (versusvending) for a variety of reasons (i.e., higher-ticket items, wider selection of products, higher trafficplacements), which we believe will prove sustainable. We estimate that a micro market can gener- The aforementioned trends are evident in the financial results of pure-plays Nayax and Canta-loupe. Nayax’s volume per device grew at a 13.5% compound annual clip from 2019 to 2024, whileCantaloupe grew at a 15.6% rate from fiscal 2021 to 2024. We estimate a vast majority of Nayax’smore than $5.5 billion of payment volume and Cantaloupe’s $3.3 billion is traditional small-ticketunattended goods/services, but the trends should prove sustainable as business mixes evolve. implying about $1 billion of revenue and $300 million of adjusted EBITDA by 2028. We maintainour Market Perform rating of Cantaloupe, which is being acquired by 365 Retail for $945 millionat 11.6 times 2026 EBITDA. We view unattended retail as a compelling yet often underappreciated growth vector for electronicpayments. As we outlined in our report on contactless payments (Tapping Into Small-Ticket Trans-actions: Exploring Contactless Payments), small-ticket transactions remain largely cash-based,and similar to tap-to-pay cards, technology in unattended retail is helping convert small-tickettransactions. Unattended retail should represent a tailwind to the electronic payments ecosystem, Unattended retail generally refers to an environment in which consumers can obtain goods with-out the need for face-to-face interaction with an employee—from product selection to purchase.Traditionally, unattended retail has often been associated with small-ticket food and beverage(F&B) vending machines. In recent years, however, the channel is increasingly being leveraged to Unattended Operators and DistributorsAside from the physical manufacturers of vending machines and fixtures, the key enablers of un- attended retail include hardware, software, and payment vendors (e.g., Nayax, Cantaloupe, CraneNXT, 365 Retail) and operators that generally service and manage locations. Vending is an impor-tant distribution channel for both Coca-Cola and Pepsi, which have their own strategies to promote Operators range from small mom-and-pop businesses to multinational providers such as Com-pass Group, Aramark, and Sodexo. For example, Sodexo’s convenience and vending business(InReach) is targeting at least $500 million of annual revenue in 2025, while Compass’s Can-teen business has over 18,000 market locations, 230,000 connected vending machines, and over Consolidation has been a key trend in the unattended retail market between both hardware, soft-ware, and payment providers and operators. For example, the acquisition of Three Square Market($41 million, 2022) bolstered Cantaloupe’s micro market capabilities, while Nayax acquired VM-tecnologia ($27 million, unattended in Brazil), Roseman Engineering ($5.7 million electric vehicle[EV] charging, fuel), and UPPay ($5.3 million self-service coffee in Brazil). 365 Retail’s pending ac-quisition of Cantaloupe expands its presence into vending and follows several deals including Par- Traditional operator consolidation in 2024 included Aramark’s acquisition of Tomdra (300 clients)and SunDun (1,000 clients). Sodexo’s InReach business acquired Five Star Food Services, CapitolVending and Coffee (250 clients), K&R Vending, CRH Catering, and Legend Food Service. We be-lieve consolidation helps operators improve economies of scale in a labor-intensive business. Historically, Cantaloupe has had a larger presence among larger operators, while Nayax’s custom-ers generally consist of small mom-and-pop operators. In fiscal 2024 the