交易驱动因素：亚太地区2025年第三季度

Contents Foreword: Trade-relatedunrest still stalks Asia Trade tremors return Q4, however, opened with a bang. Beijing’s decision to extend exportcontrols to a wider range of rare-earth minerals and battery-gradematerials, ostensibly a national-security measure that was widely Q3 offered a period of relative calm following the tariff tantrums thatfollowed President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ in April. APAC marketssteadied as the dust settled from the earlier US-China exchanges, with For dealmakers, the shock has re-emphasized supply-chain resilienceand localization. Cross-border bidders are stress-testing procurementexposure and scrutinizing geopolitical risk more closely, while domesticinvestors remain alert to opportunities created by shifting trade patterns.For now, the region’s macroeconomic footing is intact, underpinned India remained the region’s bright spot. The IMF forecasts thecountry’s GDP to expand by a hefty 6.6% this year. Japan and Australiasaw modest growth, while Southeast Asia’s major economies continue Outlook:APAC heat chart Greater China leads the APAC pipeline by a wide margin with 568 of the1,506 ‘companies for sale’ stories tracked by Mergermarket’s heat chart,heavily weighted toward industrials & chemicals (I&C, 205), technology, China is aggressively localizing semiconductor inputs: domestic waferproduction now meets roughly half of demand in select categories.Simultaneously, the country has intensified scrutiny of foreign techacquisitions and expanded antitrust investigations. For example, the Digital deals Emerging engines Southeast Asia (237 ‘for sale’ stories) and India (201) remain central toAsia’s structural growth story. The former’s pipeline is led by TMT (37)and I&C (32), as the China+1 trend accelerates manufacturing relocationto Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Expanding digital connectivity and Across APAC, 250 TMT ‘for sale’ stories are being tracked. Citi forecastsaround 10% growth in Asian tech company fundraising in 2025, drivenespecially by AI, data infrastructure, and hardware supply-chain Australia & New Zealand (281 stories) rank second to China butrepresents one of the region’s most balanced pipelines, with sectorbreadth spanning energy, mining & utilities (EMU, 40), PMB (also 40),and TMT (38). The solid stock of EMU opportunities under consideration India shows a similarly balanced mix, with TMT and PMB (34 each)alongside strong financial services (28) and consumer (27) activity.Deepening liquidity, policy reforms, exceptional GDP growth, andthe world’s largest consumer base by population are all powerful Private capital racing intoAPAC’shigh-speed growth engines Summary: Dealmakerspause for breath as M&Amomentum cools The IMF projects APAC GDP growth of around 3.9% in 2025,down from 4.6% last year due to softer external demand anduneven domestic recoveries. Within this, ASEAN’s outlook hasbeen trimmed to around 4.1% owing to trade headwinds and After a blistering H1, APAC’s M&A market lost a step in Q3. Dealvalue dropped to US$215bn, a sharp 27.7% decline from Q2 and9.2% lower year-on-year, while volume slipped 12.2% to 2,462deals. The slowdown follows two quarters of exceptionally strongbig-ticket activity, suggesting buyers are pausing to digest earlier Dry powder thins Private equity activity eased notably in Q3, in line with the broaderM&A slowdown. Financial sponsors completed 553 buyouts worthUS$41.8bn in total, down 11.8% and 16.8% year-on-year respectively.In 2024, funds in all currencies except renminbi raised US$74bn, the Across corporate and sponsored M&A, TMT remained the largestsector by volume with 575 deals announced, though that representsa 22% year-on-year decline, and aggregate value dropped 31.5% toUS$23.9bn. I&C’s contribution of 456 deals held comparatively steady Strategic strength APAC’s largest Q3 deal saw Sony Group execute a partial spin-off ofSony Financial Group, distributing over 80% of its shares to existingSony shareholders. The US$7bn move decouples Sony’s financialservices arm from its broader entertainment and electronics portfolio In the EMU space, Schneider Electric picked up the remaining 35% stakein its Indian joint venture SEIPL for US$6.3bn. This acquisition brings theIndia operations fully under Schneider’s control, intended to accelerate The region’s third largest deal saw Novartis strike a multi-assetlicensing and option agreement with Argo Biopharma. The US$5.4bndeal comprises a US$160m upfront payment, with up to US$5.2bn in Governance reforms and innovationdrive big-ticket APAC M&A SPOTLIGHT:Indonesia Indonesia entered Q3 from a position of strength after GDP expanded5.1% year-on-year in Q2, its fastest pace in two years. But by lateAugust, simmering economic frustrations spilled into the streetsamid protests over budget cuts and stagnant wages. In response,President Prabowo’s government announced a US$2bn consumer- M&A is also subdued, with the year-to-date totals of 62 deals worthUS$