欧元区前景与货币政策

Technological University Dublin www.ecb.europa.eu ©Philip R. LaneMember of the Executive Board 3 November 2025 RubricMonetary policy in the euro area RubricInflation developments and outlook Energy inflation and September2025 projections(annual percentage points) HICP inflation andSeptember2025 projections(annual percentage points) Non-energy inflation andSeptember 2025 projections(annual percentage points) RubricPrivate consumption, income and saving rate Model-based decomposition of cumulativechange in saving rate(cumulative percentage point changes and percentage point Private consumption and saving rate(left-hand scale: quarter-on-quarter percentage changes, percentage point contributions; right-hand scale: percentage ofdisposable income)Services contributions since the second quarter of 2022) RubricHousing investment Housing investment and short-term indicators(left-handscale: quarter-on-quarterpercentage Housing investment and model-based fundamentals in Q2 2025(first quarter of 2022 = 100) Housing investment and model-based fundamentals(year-on-yearpercentagechanges) changes; right-handscale: balances, PMI index–50) RubricBusiness investment Business investment andcapital goods indicators(left-handscale: quarter-on-quarter percentage Business investment andaccelerator model(year-on-year percentage change) change; right-handscale: diffusion index) Euro area goods export prices to theUnited States(index: January 2024 = 100) RubricEuro area imports Euro area imports(left-hand side: index: January 2024 = 100; right-hand side: Euro area import prices(year-on-year percentage changes) percentage) RubricUnited States and China: activity United States:Consensus EconomicsGDP forecast for 2025and 2026(annual percentage changes, moving average) China: Consensus Economics GDPforecast for 2025 and 2026(annual percentage changes, moving average) RubricCommodity prices RubricReal effective exchange rate and relative price developments Relative CPI developments(cumulative percentage change vs January 2021) RubricChanging composition of trade Change in EA and US import volumes andunit values from ASEAN economies(change between 2025 and 2022-24, percentage) Change in China’s export volumes andunit values by partner(change between 2025 and 2022-24, percentage) RubricLabour market Change in unemployment rate(percentage point change for theunemployment Indeed job postings(index: September 2024 = 100) rate and percentage point contributions) RubricFood inflation Model-based decomposition of HICP food(percentage point contributions to deviations from long-term Food inflation decomposition(annual percentage changes; percentage point contributions) average) RubricGoods and services inflation Non-energy industrial goods inflation(annual percentage changes) Services inflation (annual percentage changes) Notes: Series forrealisedvalues of non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) inflation andPersistent and Common Component of Inflation (PCCI) are monthly, while the diamondsrepresent the quarterly projections. The first diamond corresponds to the projection for theentire fourth quarter of 2025.The latest observations are for October 2025 (flash estimate)for NEIG inflation and September 2025 for PCCI NEIG. RubricWages Sectoral wage growth outcomes versuspre-pandemic patterns and expectations ECB wage tracker and CPE growth(annual percentage changes) RubricConsumer inflation expectations and impact of food inflation Relative importance of food inflation forinflation perceptions and expectations (CES)(relative weights) CES: consumer inflation expectations RubricMeasures of inflation expectations SPF: HICP inflation expectations(annual percentage changes) BoRto euro area inflation Inflation expectations based onILS rates(annual percentage changes) RubricRisk-free rates in the near-term, financial conditions indices €STR forward curve and surveyexpectations of the deposit facility rate(percentages per annum) Financial conditions indices(cumulative changes since 1 January 2025) RubricMoney creation and debt financing Net debt financing flows of euroarea firms(left-hand scale: monthly flows in EUR billions, Bank loans to households bypurpose(left-hand scale: monthly flows in EUR billions, Sources of money creation(left-hand scale: monthly flows in EUR billions, right-hand scale: annual percentage changes) right-hand scale: annual percentage changes) right-hand scale: annual percentage changes)Other lending RubricBank funding costs and lending rates for firms and households Bank funding costs(percentages per annum) Bank lending rates to households(percentages per annum) Bank lending rates to firms(percentages per annum) Sources: ECB (BSI, MIR, CSDB, MMSR), IHS MarkitiBoxxand ECBcalculations. Notes: Marginal funding costs are computed by weighingrates on new business costs of each component (overnight deposits,deposits redeemable at notice, time deposits, bonds, and interb