脱钩风险：半导体出口管制如何损害美国芯片制造商和创新

TRELYSA LONG|NOVEMBER 2025 U.S. export controls on semiconductor sales to China reduce U.S. chipmakers’ revenues, lowertheir R&D investment capabilities, and reduce industry employment. As such, U.S. policymakersshould keep semiconductor export controls to a minimum. KEY TAKEAWAYS ITIF’s economic model estimates that U.S. firms could lose about $77 billion insemiconductor industry sales in the initial year after a hypothetical, one-time fulldecoupling with China. South Korean firms could gain about $21 billion in sales, European Union firms $15billion, Taiwanese firms $14 billion, Japanese firms $12 billion, mainland Chinese firms$9 billion, and other nations’ firms $5 billion of U.S. firms’ losses. U.S. industry R&D investments in semiconductors could decrease by about 24 percent,or $14 billion, compared with the status quo after a one-time full decoupling with China. The U.S. semiconductor industry could support over 80,000 fewer U.S. industry jobs andalmost 500,000 fewer downstream jobs in the face of a full decoupling between theUnited States and China. CONTENTS Key Takeaways................................................................................................................... 1Introduction....................................................................................................................... 3Modeling the Economic Impact of Semiconductor Export Controls........................................... 4Impact of Export Controls on U.S. Semiconductor Firms ........................................................ 6Semiconductor Market in 2024 ........................................................................................ 6Impact on U.S. Semiconductor Firms’ Revenue.................................................................. 7Impact on U.S. Semiconductor Firms’ R&D Spending......................................................... 9Impact on U.S. Jobs........................................................................................................ 9Medium-Term Foregone Growth and Resulting Market.......................................................... 10Long-Term Foregone Growth and Resulting Market .............................................................. 14Impact on ICT Industries................................................................................................... 17Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 19Appendix: Methodology..................................................................................................... 20U.S. Semiconductor Firms’ Revenue Loss From Various Export Control/DecouplingScenarios in the Base Year............................................................................................. 20U.S. Semiconductor Firms’ R&D Spending Change/Losses ................................................ 21U.S. Semiconductor Industry Job Losses ......................................................................... 21Additional Job Losses in the U.S. Economy ..................................................................... 22Foregone Losses in Years 5 and 10 After Decoupling in the Base Year................................ 22U.S. Semiconductor Firms’ Revenue Foregone.............................................................. 22R&D Spending Foregone............................................................................................. 22Semiconductor and Additional Jobs Foregone............................................................... 22U.S. and China Semiconductor Market 5 and 10 Years After Decoupling in theBase Year..................................................................................................................... 22New Overall Market Shares After Decoupling ................................................................ 22R&D Spending After Decoupling ................................................................................. 23Semiconductor Jobs................................................................................................... 23Additional Jobs.......................................................................................................... 24Endnotes......................................................................................................................... 25 INTRODUCTION Semiconductors constitute the foundation of the global digital economy, generating $631 billionin global sales in 2024, and is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, while enabling more than$7 trillion in annual downstream economic activity in fields such as artificial intelligence (AI),cloud computing, and advanced manufacturing.1This represents roughly 7 percent of the world’seconomic activity.2 This report examines ahypothetical scenarioin which the United States implements broaderexport controls and policies that effectively decouple U.S. semiconductor firms f