聚焦自动驾驶、Robotaxi和机器人

China Autonomous Driving All eyes onAD,robotaxis, and robotics China ◆UpcomingTesla AGM the key near-term catalyst Yuqian Ding*Head of China Autos ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedyuqian.ding@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 5108 ◆The pace of commercialization differs: AD is scaling fast;robotaxis on track; still early for robotics Michel Liu* (Reg. No. S1700524090001)Analyst, China AutosHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedmichel.m.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn+8610 5795 2351 ◆We prefersupply chain names:Horizon Robotics, Joyson,Tuopu,Xingyu; among OEMs we preferXPEV;all rated Buy UpcomingTesla AGM the key focus:China’s auto and AI-related ecosystem spansautonomous driving (AD), robotaxis, and robotics.Eachisatadifferent stage ofdevelopment,but collectivelywe think theyrepresentone of the largest structuralgrowth opportunities in the next decade.With Tesla’sAGM on 6Novemberlikely tofeature updates onthe company’sFSD V14system, robotaxis, and Optimus, weexpect thistotrigger renewed marketinterest. These developments could havematerial implications across China’sAD, robotaxi, and humanoid robots value chain. Elaine Chen* (Reg. No. S1700524030001)Analyst, ChinaAutosHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedelaine.chen@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 010 5795 2364 Li Yang*Analyst, China AutosThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedli01.yang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 6216 Commercialization progress: AD>robotaxi>robotics:AD is nearest to a demandinflection point. The highwayand city navigate on autopilot (NOA)penetration rate inChina surged from 14% in4Q24 to24%in8M25 (NE Times,16October 2025),supported by an accelerating policy rollout and OEM adoption.Robotaxisareapproaching the commercialization inflection point, with fleets expected to expandfrom low thousands to tens of thousands over 2H25-26e,yetstill representing <1%penetration in China. Progress is underpinned by improvements in fleet economicsand regulatory support. This echoes the rapid increase in Waymo’s fleet to 2,000vehicles in the US, with the number of weekly paid rides rising to 250,000.Humanoidroboticsare a longer-term narrative, defined by vast potential butlimited byearlystage visibility. Tesla's Optimus timeline suggests that material progress in modeltraining, design and supply chain validation will require more time, which currentlymakesroboticsnamesvolatile and more catalyst-driven. Brian Yu*Associate, China Auto ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbrian.d.yu@hsbc.com.hk+852 28227281 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations We prefer supply chain names: Horizon Robotics, Joyson, Tuopu,Xingyu;among OEMs we prefer XPEV.We thinkHorizon(9660 HK, RMB9.04, Buy) is thebest in class in terms of benefiting from the rising AD penetration as the company iswell positioned to capture AD growth across OEMs. We also like: 1)Joyson(600699CH, RMB31.75, Buy),given itsmargin recovery in itssafetycomponentsbusiness,expansion in itsauto electronic business (especially AD-related) andprogress inrobotics;2)Tuopu(601689 CH, RMB70.26, Buy) for its solid growth supported byrising exposure to local brands and its better positioning in the humanoid robotcomponent sector;and3)Xingyu(601799 CH, RMB129.05, Buy) foritsproduct mixupgrade,accelerating overseas expansion,and rising robotics exposure.AmongOEMs, we preferXPENG(XPEV US, USD23.49, Buy)for itsaccelerating productcycle with its leading AD capabilities, and potential opportunities in physical AI(Robotaxi +Humanoid Robotics) business.Seepages8-9forvaluation andrisks. Bulls on the march The 21stedition of the EM Sentiment Survey Click to view Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, whichforms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Catalysts ahead ◆Autonomous drivinghasreachedaninflection point; we preferHorizon Robotics and XPEV◆Robotaxis:acceleratingcommercialization and fleet expansion◆Robotics:a large marketatanearly stage; we prefer Joyson, Tuopu,andXingyu With Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting scheduled for 6 November, investors are likely to focus onAI-driven auto innovations. Elon Muskis expected to unveil key updates across autonomous driving(FSD V14), robotaxis, and humanoid robots(Optimus). These developments couldprovide furthercatalysts for auto and AI themes–AD, robotaxis, and humanoid robots.Thisoffers an opportunityand, more importantly,a potentialinflection point for fundamentals. This is because more tangibleprogress is expected across the space–including a policy and demand inflection point inautonomous driving, the start of robotaxi commercialization as the size of the fleet expands, and theimminentmass production of humanoid robots. Autonomous driving:risingpe