中国经济：四季度出口收缩凸显增长压力上升

China Economy Exports contraction underscores risinggrowth pressure in4Q Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’sexportsslumped to negative inOctasexports to developed countriesincludingtheUS, EU, Japan, Australia and etc saw notable drops. Exports toemerging markets including ASEAN, Africa and Latin America also moderated.Transportequipmentand integrated circuits remained robust in exports whileother tech products including laptops and cellphonesfurther contracted. Property-related and low value-added products remained subdued. Imports moderateddragged by intermediate goods including steel & copper products, rubber &plastics and machine tools, reflecting softening industrial activities in China. Withexports expected to soften due to payback from front-loading and durableconsumption to slow downondemand overdraft, China may face mounted growthheadwinds in 4Q25. Growthpressure may prompt policymakers to introduceadditional easing measures,althoughthe scale is likely to be more moderate thanlast year. Looking forward, we expect China’s export growth to decelerate from5.9% in 2024 to 3% in 2025 while import growth maymildly slow down from 1.1%to 0.5%. USD/RMB rates may appreciate from the current 7.13 to 7.1 by year endand 7.05 by end of 2026. Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Exports slumped to negative as goods to developed countriesdropped.Exportsdropped to-1.1%(all on a YoY basis unless specified) inOctfrom 8.3% in Sep,notably missingmarket expectationat3.1%, the firstnegativereading since Mar 2023 excluding the Chinese New Yeardistortion.Exports to the USremained inadeep contraction at-25% in Octcompared to-27% in Sep. Exports to other developed countries softened,astheEU, Japan, South Korea,theUK, Australia and Canada saw notabledrops.Shipments to major re-routing destinations also moderated,asASEAN, Latin America and Africa slowed down from 15.6%, 15.2%,56.4%to 11%, 2.1% and 10.5%.Trade surplusdropped 5.9%toUS$90.1bn in Oct,indicating the 4Q25 GDP faces mounting downward pressure. Source: Wind, CMBIGM Circuits and ships remained robust while personal consumptiongoods moderated.Tech products moderated, as integrated circuits sloweddown to 26.9%in Oct from 32.7%, while personal computers and cellphonesfurther dropped to-10% and-16.6% in Oct from-0.3% and-1.9%.Transportequipment,on the otherhand, notably surged in Oct as ships andvehicles accelerated to 34% and 68.4% from 10.9% and 42.7%.Low value-added exports including textile yam, travel goods & bags, garmentsand toyssaw the biggest hit from tariff and declined further, as well as the housing-related products includingfurniture, lamps & lighting products and homeappliances. Rare earth exports remained elevated at 42.8% in Oct, reflectingthat the additional export controls were never fully imposed. Source: Wind, CMBIGM Importsmoderated dragged by intermediate products.China’s importsof goodsdropped to 1% in Oct from 7.4% in Sep, missing themarketexpectationsof3.9%. Imports fromtheUSfurther dipped to-22.8% in Octfrom-16%. For energy products, import volume ofcrude oil further pickedup to 8.2% in Oct from 3.9%,while coal and natural gas further contractedby 9.8% and 7.2%.For raw materials, volume of iron and copper oreremained robust at 7.2% and 6.1%in Oct.Intermediate products saw largedeclines, as steel products, copper products, plastics, rubber and machinetoolsnotably declined in imports volume, reflecting the moderating industrialactivities in China. Imports of integrated circuits moderated due to tradedisputes. Import volume of soybean accelerated to 17.2%in Oct from13.2%, as China vowed to import nearly 100mn tons from the US over thenext 3 years. Narrowing trade surplus and weaker durable goods consumptionweighed on growth.GDP growth notably moderated in 3Q25 despiterecord-high of current account surplus atUS$196bn. With exportsexpectedto further soften in4Q due to payback from front-loading and durableconsumption to slow down due to demand overdraft, China may facemountedheadwinds in economy.Growth pressure may promptpolicymakers to introduce additional easing measures,althoughthe scale islikely to be more moderate than last year.Looking forward, we expectChina’s export growth to decelerate from 5.9% in 2024 to 3% in 2025 whileimport growth may mildly slow down from 1.1%to 0.5%.USD/RMB ratesmay appreciate from the current 7.13 to 7.1 by year end and 7.05 by end of2026. Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect