能源转型展望西班牙2024

A national forecast to 2050 FOREWORDFOREWORD HIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTS As DNV in Spain celebrates 25 years’ involvement in the energy sector and thegroup’s 160th anniversary, I am delighted to present this forecast of Spain’senergy transition to 2050. It combines the expertise of our Energy TransitionOutlook (ETO) team in Norway with market insights from our Spanish team tooffer valuable perspectives to all market stakeholders. Spain has made Electricity is set to dominate Spain’s energysystem, but short-term infrastructure Despite significant emissionreductions Spain is not on track for —Electricity’s share in energy demand will growfrom 22% in 2023 to 26% by 2030, below the —CO2emissions will reduce by three-quarters(74%) by 2050 from 1990 levels—A 13% CO2emissions reduction by 2030 fallsshort of the NECP’s 32% GHG reduction target —Oil and natural gas currently make up 70% ofthe energy mix, but their share is expected todrop by over two-thirds by 2050, significantly —By 2050, electricity will make up 50% of energydemand, with rapid adoption of electric vehicles(EV), and increased electrification in buildings When we began in Spain in 1999, our market activitieswere centred on the early development of renewableenergy. Wind and solar power are now the dominantenergy sources, and we forecast they will grow 4-fold and6-fold, respectively, by 2050. The new challenges lie inelectrifying more of Spain’s energy use and upgradinggrid integration to handle all the renewable electricity. extensively interconnected with Europe to balancemarkets and share the benefits of the country’s vastnatural resources and commitment to becoming a model —Improved efficiency in electricity use will helpreduce Spain’s final energy demand by a fifth Spain is making progress in transitioning to a greener,more efficient energy mix. But with the country’s ambitionto be net zero by mid-century, the transition requires From the 2030s onward, hydrogen will playkey roles in energy for manufacturing and in Installed renewables capacity in Spain willquadruple by 2050, positioning the country as —Spain will have 120 GW of wind and 230 GW ofsolar capacity by 2050 — a 4-fold growth of windand a 6-fold growth of solar, compared to today —Hydrogen use in the energy sector will begin inthe 2030s, mainly for industrial heat We hope this report serves as a guiding light towardsa sustainable future in an increasingly complex world.Our 300-strong team here in Spain, supported by 15,000 —Hydrogen exports to Europe are expected in thelate 2040s, reaching around 1.7 Mt/yr by Since the first ETO in 2017, we have consistently empha-sized that the energy transition is vital for the planet’shealth, technologically viable, and economically feasible.Spain’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) may notachieve all its targets, but it outlines a vision for thecountry’s future energy sector. Spain’s annual energy-related emissions peaked at 385 Mt in 2007 and areforecasted to drop to 206 Mt in 2030 and 62 Mt in 2050. —The average cost to produce electricity fromrenewables in Spain is lower than the Europeanaverage, and by 2050, it will be 10% less for —Spain’s competitive solar energy could drivehydrogen exports beyond the expected 1.7 Mtin 2050, but this will require major expansion in —This growth in renewables will reduce fossil-fuel imports and boost energy security Santiago Blanco Executive VP and Regional DirectorSouthern Europe, MEA and LATAM Electricity is set to dominate Spain’s energysystem, but short-term infrastructure From the 2030s onward, hydrogen will playkey roles in energy for manufacturing and Despite significant emission reductionsSpain is not on track for climate neutrality Installed renewables capacity in Spain willquadruple by 2050, positioning the country as Spain’s commitment on renewable power started in thelate 20th century and will continue. Penetration of windand solar, electrification, and increasing demand forclean energy will maintain the pace. By 2050, Spain’sinstalled renewable capacity will include 120 GW of windand 230 GW of solar, reflecting a 4-fold increase in wind Spain's shift towards electrification is crucial for reducingfossil-fuel dependency but poses significant infrastructurechallenges — such as generation and congestion curtail-ments, lack of interconnections, and slow permittingprocesses – which threaten progress. Although electricity's According to the NECP’s forecast, the measures outlinedin the plan should result in a one-third (32%) reduction inGHG emissions by 2030 from the baseline of 300 Using hydrogen for energy will grow from practicallyzero now to about 1.4 MtH2/yr in 2050. Starting in 2030, demand will speed up, driven by an initial significantuptake in industrial applications requiring high-tempera-ture heat, such as iron and steel production. The secondlargest application will be in aviation and maritime, MtCO2eq in 1990. In our ETO, we predict the reduction in CO2emiss