CCS监控：卡住

Asia 24 October 2025Date Asia Macro Strategy CCS monitor: Stuck Bryant XuStrategist+65-6423 5558 There's been no dull moment in Asia's macro landscape since summer: re-escalating trade tensions, surprise central bank policy decisions, and the PBOC'sdecision to move the fixing below the long-held 7.10 key level. Yet,price actions inAsia Xccy basis have been surprisingly muted, with all pairs trading within anarrower range over the last three months compared with the average of the lasteight years (Figure 1). We offer a few observations on the Asia CCS space: Jalaj SinghResearch Associate nElevated Xccy basis and limited receiving interest in Asia (ex-China): InAsia (excluding China), the narrow Xccy basis range likely stems fromalready elevated levels and a lack of appetite to receive them. While ampleUSD liquidity drives basis higher ( Figure 4), there's a limit: it generally can'tturn positive given the USD's reserve currency status. Coupled with nDistinct dynamics for CNH Xccy basis: The reasons for CNH Xccy basis'snarrow trading range are different. CNH Xccy basis is closer to the bottomof its four-year range than the top. While strong receiving interest persists,notably from dim sum bond issuances by foreign entities, the market isconcerned about its sustainability. This interest could abate if funding cost nRare phenomenon: CNH front-end CCS trading below CNY: It's a rareoccurrence for CNH front-end CCS to trade lower than CNY front-end CCS(Figure 5). This can be attributed to two main factors: onshore corporatesare utilizing S/B FX swaps to enhance returns from their USD holdings, and nLess attractive Reverse ASW for Thai investors: The attractiveness ofreverse ASW (asset swap spread) for Thai investors has diminished (Figure6 ). This, however, is more a consequence of the sell-off in Thai government Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, DTCC Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, CEIC Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Cross-currency swap monitor Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP CCS seasonality monitor Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP ASW monitor for USD-based investors ASW monitor for EUR-based investors ASW pick-up over SOFR/ESTR for 5-year Asian GBs Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Intra-Asia ASW monitor EMTN monitor Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Balance sheet hedge monitor for USD based MNCs Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LPNote: Equals to the USD fixed rate in synthetic fixed-to-fixed CCS with local currency leg fixed at 0%. Balance sheet hedge monitor for EUR-based MNCs Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Asia Credit issuance & maturity monitor Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Bondradar Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Bondradar Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Bondradar Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/ Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in thisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche