2020年全球移动趋势

Global Mobile Trends 2020New decade, new industry? The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, unitingmore than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobileecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies,equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations inadjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leadingMWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as wellas the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data,analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports andresearch. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in everycountry worldwide – from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurateand complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions ofindividual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators,financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategicdecision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used asan industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by theindustry itself. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website atwww.gsma.com Follow the GSMA on Twitter:@GSMA Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading researchreports across a range of industry topics. www.gsmaintelligence.cominfo@gsmaintelligence.com GLOBAL MOBILE TRENDS The Big 5Trends shapingthe future of mobileand TMT Predictions for the next 10 yearsView from the topFuture of devicesImplications of the 5G eraEnterprise IoT and Industry 4.0Media and contentFinancial performanceRegional outlooks 1Telco efforts are intensifying to drive growthin digital A decade-old challenge •Operators have long sought a revenue stream beyond connectivityto offset subscriber saturation and competitive pricing pressures. •Strategies include Internet of Things (IoT), pay TV, advertising andfintech, depending on the country. •Building a new business to move the overall dial is challenging. •Of the 20 biggest operator groups worldwide, non-connectivityrevenue is on average between 10% and 20% of group top line(AT&T’s 40% is an exception driven by the Time Warner acquisition). •While ‘services’ occupy much of the CEO rhetoric of wheregrowth will come from, operators are fundamentally still networkbusinesses. Glass half full versus half empty •As the 2020s near, there remains significant upside to capture,particularly in the enterprise space as digitisation continues apace. •Aside from costs associated with infrastructure investment, thebiggest challenge will be to engineer internal cultural change thatrewards agile operations and risk taking rather than simply hittingquarterly KPIs. 2Smartphones continue their inexorable rise inthe developing world Emerging markets on the up Global installed base on mobile operator networksBillions of devices connected to a cellular network. Data-only devices include cellular tablets, dongles and modems •It would be easy to write off thesmartphone era as having passed,considering annual unit sales have been indecline since 2017. •However, most of the developing world hasyet to get a smartphone. •That is changing fast; by 2025, smartphonepenetration will reach 80% globally, drivenby India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico and ahost of fast followers in Africa. New people, new behaviours,different dynamics •The fact that 70% of smartphones willrun on LTE speaks to the influence of animpending mobile internet generation inyouthful, non-English speaking markets. •Unlike in the US and Europe whereoperators lost out in digital value creation tobig tech, places like Africa are opportunitiesfor operators to leverage the strong brandrecognition and positive associations withproviding essential services. 3New platform wars on the horizon centre onAI and immersive reality New platform wars emerge Smartphones•Apple and Google’s dominance in the smartphone era has longbeen entrenched. •As new device categories (whether smart speakers or VR headsets)attempt to find a place in homes, a renewed set of platform wars isin its early stages. The home ‘laboratory’ for AI and immersive reality VR headsets•Whereas the smartphone wars centred on the app economy,the new battleground is in AI development and a push towardsimmersive reality. •The competitive landscape is also much more crowded. Smart speakers•In VR, Oculus (Facebook), Sony, Google and Samsung are allinvolved. Microsoft is a sleeper because its ambition is not inhardware but rather in mixed reality, which would make VRobsolete. Apple is for now not a factor, placing it at risk of fallingbehind as iPhone sales continue to slow. •Smart speakers are a window into AI development. Amazon’sposition with Echo devices is a worrying sign for competitors. Thereis a clear strategy of