移动投资缺口：加勒比海岛屿

Mobile Investment Gaps Caribbean islands GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of globalmobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, andpublisher of authoritative industry reports andresearch. Our data covers every operator group,network and MVNO in every country worldwide – The GSMA is a global organisation unifying the mobileecosystem to discover, develop and deliver innovationfoundational to positive business environments and Representing mobile operators and organisationsacross the mobile ecosystem and adjacent industries,the GSMA delivers for its members across threebroad pillars: Connectivity for Good, IndustryServices and Solutions, and Outreach. This activity GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators,vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic decision- Our team of analysts and experts produce regularthought-leading research reports across a range of We invite you to find out more atwww.gsma.comFollow the GSMA:@GSMA www.gsmaintelligence.cominfo@gsmaintelligence.com Authors Pau Castells, Head of Economic AnalysisFacundo Rattel, Economist Published July 2024© 2024 – GSMA Contents Executive summary05 Without further investments, mobile network capacity inmany Caribbean islands will soon be constrained Limited revenue growth opportunities for telcos exacerbateconnectivity and digital transformation challenges20 02Investment and connectivity gaps in the Caribbeanislands in 2030 By 2030 the 4G usage gap will still represent over 40% ofthe population in the Caribbean islands Deploying 5G will cost at least $1 billion, but almost halfof this investment will not materialise without reforms29 03Market reforms can boost adoption and investments31Market reforms can reduce the 4G usage gap by 18 pp andthe overall 4G investment gap, from $3 billion to $1.6 billion35Impact on digital transformation: market reforms alone canreduce the 5G investment gap by almost 25%37 Defining the Caribbean islands Aruba; Anguilla; Antigua and Barbuda; Bahamas; Barbados; Bonaire; Sint Eustatius and Saba;Cayman Islands; Curaçao; Dominica; Dominican Republic; Grenada; Guadeloupe; Haiti; Jamaica;Martinique; Montserrat; Puerto Rico; Saint Barthélemy; Saint Kitts and Nevis; Saint Lucia; Saint Martin;Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; Sint Maarten; Trinidad and Tobago; Turks and Caicos Islands; British Our assessment does not account for impacts in Cuba, since the market dynamics and solutionsconsidered as part of the analysis are not viable under the country’s economic and political system. Executive summary The Caribbean islands have experienced significantgrowth in mobile internet connectivity levels inrecent years. Between 2015 and 2023, the numberof individuals with access to 3G or superior mobileinternet connectivity nearly doubled. These unique The recent growth is mostly due to the trafficproduced by a few large traffic generators (LTGs)that currently face limited incentives to optimisethe amount of traffic they produce. In 2023, thetop-two LTGs in the region (Meta and Google) While data traffic growth involves significantnetwork costs, it does not generate correspondingadditional revenues for mobile operators. This means The mobile internet usage gap, defined aspopulations living in areas with existing mobileinternet coverage but not accessing the internet,represents the biggest challenge. By 2023, more To achieve digital inclusion and transformationtargets, it is crucial to understand how 4G1and5G connectivity gaps will evolve in the period to2030 under prevailing market conditions. For this, At the same time, 5G is in its early stages ofdeployment in the region, constituting only 1% ofall mobile connections at the end of 2023. Thisconnectivity transition poses one of the most The analysis shows that while further progress ispossible under current market conditions, this willbe limited and fall short of the targets that have The need for additional network investments iscompounded by the strong growth in data traffic.Just between 2022 and 2023, average mobiledata traffic per mobile connection per month inthe Caribbean islands grew from 2.2 GB to 3.0 GB. There will be a significant investment gap in the Caribbeanislands by 2030 under current market conditions: 4G coverage:The market alone will deliver an additional 7 ppof additional 4G coverage, reaching 95% of the total populationby 2030. Based on our quantitative assessment, under currentmarket and regulatory conditions, reaching 99% 4G populationcoverage requires additional funding of $480 per additionalperson covered (or a total of $600 million). Providing universal 4G adoption:Under current market conditions, we expect4G adoption to increase by almost 20 pp, reaching 47%by 2030. However, more than half of the population in theCaribbean islands will remain unconnected to 4G. The results 5G coverage and adoption:There is a risk of a significantdelay in 5G deployment across