泰国月度经济监测

Monitor23 October 2025 Fiscal conditions remained stable, with a modest widening of the deficitto 3.1 percent of GDP. New stimulusmeasuresare expectedto support short-term demand without breachingthe public debt ceiling. Inflation stayednegative, reflecting lower energy and food prices amid subdued domestic demand.The central bank kept the policyrate unchanged, citing limited policy space.Thailand’s growth momentum hasslowedfurtherasmanufacturingactivityand servicesweakenedas projected.Tourism remained subdued, largely due to fewer Chinese visitors.Goods exports also slowed as earlier front-loaded orders faded, particularly in agriculture and industrial goods. TheThaibahtdepreciatedin early October asthe US dollar appreciatedandthe current accountturned negative.Public Disclosure Authorized Growth has been slowing, due to weakened exports, tourismandmanufacturing production.In August,manufacturingproductiongrowth contracted by 4.2 percent(year-on-year),driven by contracting production ofelectrical equipment, motorvehicles,and machinery(Fig.1).In contrast,production ofelectronics continued toaccelerate, consistent with the globaldemandfor components used in data centers and related digitalinfrastructure.Servicesalso weakened,astourism contractedand private consumption slowedamid tighter creditand weakconsumer confidence. In contrast, private investmentcontinuedtoexpand, in line with still expanding exports.Public Disclosure Authorized Touristarrivals remained weak,driven by a continueddecline in Chinese visitors despite gains from ASEAN, India,and Europe.The country registered eight consecutive months ofcontraction in tourist arrivals, with September figures down 11.3percentyear-on-year and remaining at 77 percent of pre-pandemic levels(Fig2). Over the firstnine months of 2025,arrivals declined 7.6percent year-on-year.Falling arrivals fromChina remained the main driving factor for the decline,amidsafety concerns, global economic uncertainty, anda shift inpreferences toward destinations such as Japan and Viet Nam.Nevertheless,tourist from ASEAN and India improved, andlong-haul tourist such as fromEurope continued to expand.Public Disclosure Authorized (Tourist arrivals, Index 2019=100) Merchandise exportsweakenedacross the board in August,asfront-loaded ordersfaded.Goods exports slowed sharply inAugust, expanding only 5.8% (year-on-year) compared to 11% inthe previous month, as front-loaded orders earlier in the quarterbegan to fade.Thiswasattributed toa broad-based slowdownacross sectors, includingagriculturalexports,following a drop indurianshipments,motor vehicles,electrical equipment,andmachinery and equipment exportsafter strong pre-orders earlier(Fig. 3).Automobile exports to the United States contracted forthe first time since new import tariffs took effect.In contrast,petroleum exports rebounded with the reopening of refineriesafter maintenance shutdown.Public Disclosure Authorized The FY2025 fiscal deficit rose slightly,whilenew stimulusmeasuresareexpected toremain within the planned fiscalenvelope.In the first eleven months of FY 2025 (October-August),the central government's fiscal deficit(GFS basis)widened to 3.1percent of GDP, up from 2.4percent a year earlierbutstill below pre-pandemic levels(Fig.4).The Anutinadministration’s recently announced THB 60 billion (0.3 percentof GDP) stimulus aims to deliver a short-term lift to growth whilemaintaining fiscal discipline. The package, comprising top-ups forstate welfare card holders and a co-payment program, is financedthrough reallocation of unspent stimulus funds and the centralbudget.To address the household debt challenge—which stoodat 86.8 percent of GDP (THB 16.3 trillion) at the end of June—the government launched a THB 10 billion (USD 307 million)program to purchase non-performing loans. The initiative will befinanced by reallocating THB 26 billion remaining from previousrehabilitation funds and contribution deductions, without requiringadditional fiscal resources.On the revenue side,a temporarypersonal income tax deduction of up to THB 20,000 per personfor domestic travel (Oct 29–Dec 15) was introduced to stimulatetourism.Additionally, to mitigate living costs, retail diesel andgasoline prices were cut by THB 0.50 and THB 0.30 per literthrough a reduction in contributions to the State Oil Fund. Source:Haver analytics; World Bank staff calculations. Theconsumption stimulusprogram is expectedto deliver ashort-term boost, while alsopromotingtax registration anddigitaladoption.The stimulus program provides targetedsupport to around 33 million Thais, including 13 millionSWCholders who will receive a1,700 transfer(on top of their existing300 baht), and about 20 million Khon La Krueng Plus (Co-payment Plus)participants—with THB2,400 for tax-registeredindividuals andTHB2,000 for others. Running from October 29to December 31, 2025, the scheme subsidizes spending on food,consumer goods, and services under a co-payment structure witha daily spen