您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[招银国际]:苹果升级周期前景向好,Leoni/ODM协同效应;将TP上调至人民币75.55 - 发现报告

苹果升级周期前景向好,Leoni/ODM协同效应;将TP上调至人民币75.55

2025-11-05Alex Ng、Hanqing Li招银国际路***
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苹果升级周期前景向好,Leoni/ODM协同效应;将TP上调至人民币75.55

Stronger outlook in Apple upgrade cycle andLeoni/ODM synergies; Lift TP to RMB75.55 Target PriceRMB75.55(Previous TPRMB59.50)Up/Downside24.8%Current PriceRMB60.54 We raise TP toRMB75.55(25% upside)to reflectour more positive viewoniPhone 17/foldable cycle,stronger synergy from Leoni/ODM integration, and AIservercomponentpipeline (connectivity/thermal/power). Weraise FY25-27EEPS by0-19% to reflect FY25 guidance, enhanced synergy and better margin.Weexpect Luxshare to deliver 27% earnings CAGRover 2025-27E,drivenby9%/54%/47% FY25-27E revenue CAGR from consumer electronics/automotive/communicationsegments.Trading at 25x/20x FY25/26E P/E after recentpullback, valuation is attractive in our view.Upcoming catalysts include iPhone17 shipment, auto client wins, and AI server component ramp-up. China Technology Alex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hk Beneficiary of Applemulti-productupgradecycle.With a full coverageofApple’s products(iPhone/Watch/AirPods/Mac/VisionPro),we believeLuxshareis well-positionedto benefit from strong execution and marketshare gains from Apple’s new product cycle in iPhone17/foldable/20thanniversaryeditionand smart home/AI glassesduring 2026-27E Hanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Synergies from consolidation of Leoni and Wingtech's ODM.Mgmt.highlightedthat the integration process has exceeded expectations:1)original targets for Leoni (e.g. NP breakevenin 2025, GPM to reach corp.avg.) willbeachievedat least one year earlier, and 2) vertical integrationwith Wingtech ODMwillenhance competitiveness andboost exposure tonon-Applebiz,particularly in PCsegmenttargetingdoubledsalesover nextthree years. StrongAI server product pipeline.We believe Luxshare is makingprogress with design wins and share gains withcoreAI server products(high-speed connectivity/power/thermal).In particular,mgmt.remainsconfidentthatCPCwill become mainstreamconnectivitysolutionin nearterm,and AC/DC products have achieved breakthrough with corecustomers. UpbeatFY25E guidance on iPhone 17 andbetterGPM.LuxshareguidedFY25E NPgrowth of 24-29% YoY, mainly driven bynew iPhone models andbetter profitability from Leoni and Wingtech assets. 3Q25 GPM at 12.8%(+1.1ppt YoY/0.8ppt QoQ) was a positive surprise,thanks tohigher-marginauto/communicationssegments and strong execution of new acquisitions. Multiple growthenginesto drive re-rating; Raise TP to RMB75.55Webelieverevenue mixshift tohigher-growth, high-margin AI/autosegmentsalongwithstrongerApple upgrade cycle will boostre-rating. We raise ourTPtoRMB75.55, based on10-yearhist.avg.25xFY26EP/E(vs prior 21x)for Apple cyclestrengthand strong execution ofLeoni/ODMintegrations. Source: FactSet Earningsrevision Valuation Reiterate BUY with new TP of RMB75.55(25% upside) We derive our new12MTP of RMB75.55based onhigher25x FY26E P/E(vs prior 21xFY26E P/E), in-line withthepast10-yr hist. fwd. P/E.We believe this is justified as Luxsharecontinues to deliver strong earnings growth, market sharegainsand product expansion tocapturedatacentre,Apple and NEV opportunities inthenext 3-5 years. Upcoming catalysts include iPhone 17 shipment, auto client wins, and AI server componentramp-up. Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the contentof this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined inthe code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companiescovered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOTRATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden