科技：苹果FY4Q25前瞻：iPhone/服务势头强劲；对强劲iPhone需求的一季度指引乐观

Apple FY4Q25 read-through:Resilient iPhone/Servicesmomentum;Upbeat1Q guidanceonstrongiPhonedemand Apple’s (AAPL US, NR) FY4Q25 (CY3Q25)results were solid, with revenue growth of 8%YoY and adjusted EPS growth of 13% YoY, driven byiPhone/Mac sales(+6%/13% YoY)and record Service revenue (+15% YoY), offsetting weakness in Greater China (-4% YoY)due tosupplyconstraintson strong iPhone16/17 demand.ForFY1Q26E (CY4Q25E),mgmt. guidedfor 10-12% YoYrevenue growth, double-digitiPhonerevenue growthandresilient GPM of 47-48%, which includes US$1.4bn tariff impact (vs US$1.1bn in 4Q).Webelieve this set of robust guidance shouldalleviate market concerns,especially givenongoing supply constraints for iPhone 17andreduction inchannel inventoriesQoQ.Overall, we remainconstructiveon high-end smartphone demand andupcomingupgradecycle (foldable iPhone/smart home/AI glasses) heading into2026. Forstocks,weremainselective andprefercontent/share gainers such asLuxshare,AACTech,FIT Hon Tengand BYDE. China Technology Sector Alex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hk FY4Q25 results in-line;StrongiPhone/Mac/Services offset China weakness.Bysegment,iPhonerevenue grew 6% YoY driven byrecord quarter revenue in keymarkets (e.g. US, Canada,Latin America,West Europe,Middle East, Japan, Korea,South Asia)despite supply constraintsoniPhone16/17andreduction inchannelinventoriesQoQ.Macrevenue climbed 13% YoYbackedby MacBook Airstrength,whileiPad/Wearables&Homewereflattish YoY.Servicesrevenuereached all-timerecordwith15%riseYoY,driven bydouble-digitgrowth in both developed andemerging markets.By region,China sales declined4% YoYonsupply constraints,whichis a positive shipment catalyst after capacity ramp-up to meetstrongdemandin the coming quarter. Overall GPM reached 47.2%,aboveconsensusby 70bps,mainly onabetter product mix offsetting new models’higher coststructure.FY1Q26Eoutlook:10-12%revenuegrowth, AI investmentramp-up, China to Sector reports: 1.iPhone 17 pre-order takeaways:longer delivery lead times suggeststronger demand YoY(15 Sep2025)2.Meta Connect 2025: Smart glasseslaunches continue to fuel supplychain innovation(19 Sep 2025)3.Apple launch event: iPhone 17Air/AirPods Pro 3 as majorhighlights; limited price hike thekeypositive(10 Sep 2025)4.Apple FY3Q25 read-through:Strong iPhone, China rebound andservice momentum; 4Q guidancebetter than feared(1 Aug 2025) resumegrowth.Mgmt.guided FY1Q26E revenue to grow 10-12%YoY(vs.consensus+6% YoY),“double-digit”iPhone sales growth(vs. consensus +7% YoY)andservicesrevenuegrowthin-line with FY25 growth at14%YoY.GPM is guided atrobust 47-48% (vs46.6% consensus), up 25-30bps QoQ on new product launches.Other highlights include:1)China:Mgmt. is confidentthatChina will "return to growthin1Q" based on the strong iPhone 17 reception.2) iPhone 17constraints:Demandremains very strongwithseveral models(esp.Pro),still supply-constrained headinginto the holiday quarter.3) AIinvestment:Opex is guided higher to US$18.1bn-18.5bnfor AI investment, and new AI server factory in Houstonhas started productionwith expansion plan forapplicationin data center.Strong guidance removes overhang;Expect multi-year iPhone upgrade cycle. Company reports: 1.BYDE (285 HK)-3Q25 dragged bysmartphone components; Positiveon foldable/auto/AI servers in 2026(31 Oct 2025)2.Xiaomi (1810 HK)-3Q25 preview:expect another strong quarter onbetter EV business offsetting softersmartphone/IoT (27Oct 2025)3.FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK)-2Qbusiness transition accelerated; AIcables/liquid cooling/power/automomentum on track(14 Aug 2025)4.Luxshare (002475 CH)-3Q25guidance/2Q25 results in-line;communication /auto segmentscontinue strong growth momentum(27 Aug2025)5.AAC Tech (2018 HK)-1H25 in-linedespite GPM dip; Solid outlookintact on AI-driven upgrade cycle in2H25E(22 Aug 2025) Webelievethe upbeat revenue/GPM guidanceis a major positive,alleviatingmarketconcerns oniPhone 17demand and tariff impact.We believe the strong iPhone 17cycle, driven by new form factors like the iPhone Air and new AI features, reinforcesour positive view on the high-end smartphone supply chain.We prefer names withcontent/share gains in new product cycles(foldable iPhone/smart home/AI glasses),includingLuxshare(iPhone/AirPods/Watch/acoustics/haptics/VCM),AAC Tech(acoustics/haptics/VC),FIT Hon Teng(connectors/AirPods), and BYDE(iPhonecasing/iPad OEM). Source: Company data,IDC,CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) allof the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither