增强税收能力：加强税收管理带来的收入收益（英）2025

Enhancing Tax Capacity:Revenue Gains fromStrengthening Tax Administration Jean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev, Manabu NoseWP/25/219 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025OCT IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Enhancing Tax Capacity: Revenue Gains fromStrengtheningTax Administration Prepared byJean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev, and Manabu Nose* Authorized for distribution by Nikolay Gueorguiev October 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Building on previous studies, we propose a robust estimation strategy to uncover the causaleffects of tax administration strength on tax revenue in 121 countries over the period 2014–2022. Our novelapproach utilizes a unique expert survey to construct an Operational Strength Index of tax administration, usingthe International Survey on Revenue Administration (ISORA), and employs an instrumental variable strategybased on the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’sCapacity Development programs. We find that strengthening taxadministration significantly boosts tax revenue, particularly in emerging and developing economies, andespecially in countries with lower levels of informality, stronger institutions, and higher financial development.These findings carry important policy implications for governments and development partners aiming toenhance tax administration capacity and strengthen public finances overall. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Atsebi, J., Gueorguiev, Nose, M. (2025). Enhancing Tax Capacity: RevenueGains from Strengthening Tax Administration. IMF Working Paper, WP/25/219. International Monetary Fund,Washington, DC. Enhancing Tax Capacity: RevenueGains fromStrengtheningTaxAdministration Prepared byJean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev, Manabu Nose Contents 1.Constructing Measures of the Strength of Tax Administration............................................................7a.A Delphi Method to Select Indicators and Weigh Indices..........................................................7b.The Novel Structure and Relative Weights of the OSI...............................................................82.Other Variables...................................................................................................................................9 III.Novel Stylized Facts..............................................................................................................................9 IV.Empirical Methodology.......................................................................................................................111.Empirical Challenges and Bias.........................................................................................................11 2.Empirical Strategy.............................................................................................................................12 V.Baseline Results..................................................................................................................................14 1.Alternative Lag Structures of the Instrument.....................................................................................182.Alternative Measures of OSI.............................................................................................................193.Controlling for Income Group-Year Fixed Effects.............................................................................194.Alternative Samples..........................................................................................................................195.Alternative Control Variables............................................................................................................20 VII.Sensitivity.............................................................................................................................................211.LICs vs. EMs.....................................................................................................................................21 2.Informality.........................................................................................................................................213.Financial Development.....................................................................................................................224.Institutions and Governance Quality.................................................................................................225.Differentiated Effects on Tax Types.....................................