美国利率研究：再次加速？

Re-acceleration Redux? Bond markets soldoffsharplyafterthe 2024 Fed cuts,prompting fears of a repeat. We believe this is unlikely. Thatselloffwas largely a result of a recalibration of downbeatviews on the economy and expectations of major fiscal easingfollowing the US elections. Both drivers are now missing. Anshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, US Demi Hu, CFA+1 212 526 7398demi.hu@barclays.comBCI, US Key Takeaways Samuel Earl+ 1 212 526 5426samuel.earl@barclays.comBCI, US Unusual market reaction to 2024 Fed cuts:Afterthe Fed initiated rate cuts in September 2024,the bond market responded with a sharpselloff;10-year yields rose by 100bp over threemonths, in stark contrast to the typical 25–50bp decline seen in past easing cycles (Figure 1).While the Fed is again pursuing cuts, we do not expect a repeat of this dynamic. Instead, weexpect yields to fall further. Eveline Dong+1 212 526 9576eveline.dong@barclays.comBCI, US Two key drivers of the 2024selloff:Theselloffwas primarily driven by two factors: economicdata significantly exceeded downbeat expectations, and investor sentiment around fiscal policyshiftedas markets began pricing in a Republican sweep in the US elections. These led themarket to reprice higher both the expectations and term premium components. Today, thethreshold for similar upside surprises is considerably higher. Japan Rates ResearchShinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, Japan High bar for economic data surprises:Despite mixed incoming data, markets are alreadyanticipating above-trend growth in GDP and employment next year. We believe this likelyreflects the view that the trade drag will fade as uncertainty falls (albeit recent developmentssuggest otherwise), AI capex will materially boost GDP growth next year, and fiscal andmonetary impulses are likely to be positive. We believe it is hard for the data to surprise to theupside given these expectations. Limited scope for fiscal upside surprises:The bar for fiscal expansion surprises is equallyelevated. Consensus already expects wide budget deficits despite risingtariffrevenues. Whilesome relief may beoffered,a large-scale fiscal expansion akin to 2024 expectations appearsunlikely. Given mid-term elections remain on the distant horizon, we do not expect clarity inshort order. Secretary Bessent’s post-election remarks have also weakened the link betweenfiscal surprises and duration supply. Differentstarting market conditions:Expectations for a shallow easing cycle are wellsubscribed, and the implied probability of deep cuts has declined meaningfully. Investors arenow being compensated with materially higher term premium to extend duration despitesubdued rate volatility and inflation risk premia. The Fed’s balance sheetrunoffis widely Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 18.Completed: 14-Oct-25, 14:39 GMTReleased: 14-Oct-25, 14:43 GMTRestricted - External expected to conclude soon. Although global yields are higher, foreign demand for US debtremains resilient. Japan net foreign bond sales:Thesurprise Takaichi victory and consequent rise in JGB termpremium is unlikely to trigger a large-scale repatriation of foreign bonds by Japanese investors,in our view. The composition of Japanese demand for foreign bonds hasshiftedto trustaccounts (likely passive) and life insurance companies have already sold significantly, withprospects improving for FX-hedged costs. Base case: a gradual decline in yields:We expect a measured decline in yields, with 10y yieldsfalling below 4%, as the Fed eases into an economy that neither accelerates enough to halt cutsnor weakens enough to reignite fiscal concerns. This should incentivize investors to move outthe curve, compressing the term premium. While we do not anticipate surprise economicweakness driving long-end yields higher, market participants remain concerned about this risk. Trade recommendations:We maintain our recommendation to be long duration via 5y5y USTs(and via TIPS). We also retain our 30y swap spread wideners. In option space, we continue tolike trades for lower rates, such as 1y1y low-strike 1:1.25 receiver spread (See Summary ofviews, 9 October 2025). Anatomy of the 2024 bond marketselloff Bond markets soldoffsharply the same time last year even as the Fed delivered 100bp of cuts.Figure 1 shows that 10y yields rose about 100bp over three months following the first Fed cut,catching many peopleoffguard. Historically, in past easing cycles, the rally which begins