摆脱关键矿产诅咒

October 2025 Escaping the critical minerals curse Rabah Arezki and Frederick van der Ploeg1 French National Research Center (CNRS), FERDI and Harvard Kennedy School;University of Oxford, University of Amsterdam and CEPR THE RACE FOR CRITICAL MINERALS Arace is raging among the superpowers over critical minerals in developingcountries to power the simultaneous energy and digital transitions that the world isexperiencing. The extraordinary growth in demand for critical minerals is puttingupward pressure on prices and stimulating new critical mineral discoveries aroundthe world. In developing countries, the new bonanza from critical minerals presentsopportunities but also important risks. In this Policy Insight, we argue that absentgovernance system shifts, developing countries risk facing a ‘critical minerals curse’. Today’s race to secure critical minerals by the economic superpowers is far from new– it stems from a long-standing and fundamental asymmetry between advancedeconomies and developing economies. Developing economies are less industrialisedand tend to consume fewer minerals than they produce. This situation lends itself toinfluence over these minerals by foreign economic powers, where the latter also enjoyadvances in technology and military might. When this happens, one can speak of a‘grab for minerals’. Competition among 19th century European empires for copper, tin, rubber, timber,diamonds, and gold was the trigger for what was known as the ‘scramble’ for Africa’sresources. The advance of steam engine navigation made access to, and transportof, these resources much easier for these empires. The resources were essential topowering industrial revolutions, and people in the colonies where they were locatedfaced expropriation and were subjected to various forms of forced labour, includingto extract the resources. As a result, former colonies inherited a complex history andbad institutions, which they – including many in Africa – continue to grapple with. A 2001 article by the three 2024 Nobel Laureates, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson,and James Robinson, exploits how Europeans colonised large parts of the globe toillustrate how institutions are shaped by the history of extractive activities. Importantly,the article also provides evidence of the persistence of the effects of these extractiveinstitutions on economic prosperity today. This echoes the work on institutions bythe 1994 Nobel Laureate Douglas North, who renewed interest in economic historyusing quantitative methods to explain economic and institutional change. In thisPolicy Insight, we highlight the importance of institutions for developing countries tonavigate the advent of critical minerals resulting from the economic superpowers raceechoing the 19th century race by European empires. A telling historical example of the complex history of developing countries is theDemocratic Republic of Congo (DRC), illustrated prominently in the 2012 book,Why Nations Fail, authored by two of the 2024 Nobel Laureates (James Robinsonand Daron Acemoglu). Once known as the Belgian Congo, the DRC experienced acruel form of colonisation as the de facto personal property of King Leopold II ofBelgium. The DRC’s post-independence era was plagued by direct interventions byforeign powers and autocratic rulers. This history helps explain the DRC’s deficientinstitutions, the persistent low level of trust among citizens, and distrust between thecitizenry and the government. Nowadays, the DRC is touted as the ‘new Saudi Arabia of critical minerals’.2The DRC isthe repository of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals such as cobalt, copper,and lithium. Indeed, the DRC holds around 70% and 60% of the world’s cobalt andlithium reserves, respectively, as well significant deposits of nickel and uranium, whichare used in energy generation and batteries for electric vehicles. But the abundanceof these minerals has not improved the lives of the citizens in one of the poorestcountries in the world. Indeed, the DRC encapsulates the seemingly insurmountableand intertwined challenges posed by critical minerals. These challenges are tiedto geopolitics, conflicts (both internal and external), the environment, as well aseconomic and social dimensions. OCTOBER 2025Fast forward to today, and the race for natural resources to power the simultaneousenergy and digital transitions is raging among the economic superpowers, with Chinain lead position. In principle, this renewed interest by superpowers in minerals indeveloping countries should mean the latter will receive windfalls. Historically,however, developing countries have had difficulties managing bonanzas from theexport of natural resources. Here, we highlight the dualism of institutions requiredfor developing countries to navigate the phenomenon. Specifically, we argue that thedifficulty for mineral-rich developing countries lies in the balancing act between twodifferent types of institutions, namely, outward-facing