是什么推动了全球数字化转型？来自99个经济体的见解（英）

KEY POINTS What Drives Digital TransformationGlobally? Insights from 99 Economies •Digital transformation hasunfolded in two distinctphases.Between 2010 and2015, thebreakaway phasewas characterized by rapidgains in internet usage anddigital infrastructure. From2016 to 2021, thecatch-upphase among a broadergroup of economies closedthe gap in digital adoption. Willem SmitLead Faculty for Entrepreneurship–YSEALI AcademyFulbright University Viet Nam Donghyun ParkEconomic AdvisorEconomic Research and DevelopmentImpact Department (ERDI)Asian Development Bank (ADB) Kun Fu •The drivers of digitaltransformation haveshifted over time.Economicdevelopmentplayed asignificant role duringthis period. Economieswith strong educationalsystems and capable publicinstitutions were betterpositioned to sustainand deepen their digitaltransformation, regardlessof income level. Shu TianPrincipal EconomistERDIADB Reader of Innovation andEntrepreneurshipInstitute for International Managementand EntrepreneurshipLoughborough University London Erkko AutioProfessor and Chair in TechnologyVenturing and EntrepreneurshipImperial College LondonBusiness School •Some structural factorsconsistently supportdigital adoption.Lowerincome inequalitycorrelatedwith broader and moreinclusive digital adoption.Government effectivenessremained a strong and stablepredictor of successful digitaltransformation. Digital technologies have spread rapidly, transforming economies and societies inunprecedented ways. Yet this transformation has not occurred evenly. Between 2010and 2015, a small group of economies surged ahead in digital adoption, forming abreakaway lead pack. From 2016 to 2021, a broader group began catching up, yet theimportant divides remain. This policy brief draws on data from a study of 99 economies that analyzed the evolvingdrivers of digital transformation during these two distinct phases. Using compositeindices for digital adoption, infrastructure, human capital, and national frameworkconditions, the study finds that the key enablers of digital transformation haveshifted over time. •Policy priorities mustshift from buildinginfrastructure to buildingcapabilities and trust.Thegreater challenge now liesindeveloping digital skills,strengthening institutions,and promoting inclusivedigital access. During the early breakaway phase (2010–2015), infrastructure and economicdevelopment played dominant roles. In the catch-up phase (2016–2021), institutionalquality and digital skills became the most significant drivers. These findings carryimportant implications for development policy. Economies seeking to accelerate digitaltransformation must invest not only in connectivity but also in human capital, effectiveinstitutions, and inclusive strategies. ISBN 978-92-9277-475-2 (print)ISBN 978-92-9277-476-9 (PDF)ISSN 2071-7202 (print)ISSN 2218-2675 (PDF)Publication Stock No. BRF250417-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF250417-2 BACKGROUND Over the past 30 years, digital technologies—especially theinternet—have rapidly reshaped societies around the world.Unlike earlier innovations such as electricity or the telephone,which took decades to reach a broad user base, digital technologieshave spread at unprecedented speed. In the 1990s, mobile phoneshit 50% penetration in the United States in just 5 years—anadoption rate unimaginable in earlier eras. By 2004, economies in North America and Europe had alreadypassed the 50% mark in internet use—although dozens oflower-income nations had not yet reached that same milestoneas late as 2020. These persistent gaps—commonly referred toas the “digital divide”—are shaped by a variety of factors. Withineconomies, differences in income, education, and digital literacyhelp explain who gains access and who does not. Across regions,infrastructure and skills are typically stronger in cities than in ruralor remote areas. At the national level, disparities in access andaffordability reflect broader differences in economic developmentand policy support. Despite the swift global uptake in mobile phone and internetusage, large gaps remain. According to the InternationalTelecommunication Union, nearly 2.6 billion people—aboutone-third of the global population—still do not have internetaccess. This divide plays out not only in personal use but also inhow businesses, governments, and civic institutions adopt and relyon digital infrastructure. As displayed in Figure 1, by 2021, global internet usage had reachednearly 70%. However, this average conceals stark differences. Someeconomies surpassed 75% penetration as early as 2015, while otherslagged far behind even in 2021. Understanding what drives thesedifferences—and how the drivers have changed over time—iscritical for informing effective digital development strategies. Digitalization itself can be understood both as a process (the rolloutand use of digital tools) and an outcome (how deeply digital techis embedded in society and the economy). As more economiesintegrat