释放私营部门创造就业机会：莱索托的挑战和机遇（英）

Unleashing Private SectorJob Creation: Challengesand Opportunities forLesotho Athene Laws and Ann-Alice Ticha SIP/2025/141 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on August 21, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/268. 2025OCT IMFSelected IssuesPaperAfrican Department Unleashing Private Sector Job Creation: Challenges and Opportunities for Lesotho Prepared byAthene Laws and Ann-Alice Ticha* Authorized for distribution by Andrew TiffinOctober 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on August 21, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/268. ABSTRACT:Lesotho’s public sector led growth and employment model has struggled to develop a flourishinglabor market, and recent external shocks have made developing job-rich growth an even more urgent priority.The primary challenge is a lack of labor demand due to a small, undiversified private sector and steep barriersto firm growth. Nonetheless, labor supply issues, including skills mismatches also compound the challenge.Addressing this issue will require a concerted effort on multiple policy fronts; combining public-sector reform,business-environment reform, expanding financial access for firms, better skills matching, and carefulmacroeconomic management. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Athene Laws, and Ann-Alice Ticha. “Unleashing Private Sector Job Creation:Challenges and Opportunities for Lesotho”,Selected Issues Papers2025,141(2025). Unleashing Private Sector JobCreation: Challenges andOpportunities for Lesotho Kingdom of Lesotho Prepared byAthene Laws and Ann-Alice Ticha1 A.The Employment Landscape in Lesotho 1.For decades, Lesotho has operated a public sector led growth and employment model thathas failed to deliver increased living standards. At 53 percent, Lesotho has one of the highest publicexpenditure to GDP ratios in the region, and 17 percent of GDP is spent on public sector wages alone(2024 estimates), accounting for72percent of tax revenue. Yet GDP per capita has fallen 14 percent between2016 and 2023, with Lesotho possessing one of the lowest per-capita growth rates amongst its peers. Overhalf of the economy’s formal workers are public sector employees and they earn, on average, over four timesthe median private sector wage(ILOSTAT, Lesotho 2023 SIP). The key engine for growth has been a series ofmega projects, most recently the Lesotho Highland Water Project Phase II (LHWP-II). These projects tend tobe capital intensive and source most of their workers and inputs from abroad, so spillovers to localemployment and firms are small. Other key sectors, for example water exports and diamond mining, contributesignificantly to GDP but generate little employment. The lack of job intensity from growth drivers matchesregional trends: sub-Saharan African growth is not as job intensive as elsewhere in the world (IMF 2024). (Figures1 and 2).The unemployment rateis high, estimated at 16 percent in 2024versus6percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and5percent for emerging market anddeveloping economies (EMDEs) around theworld (ILOSTAT). Only60percent of peopleparticipate in the labor market (versus morethan 70 percent for sub-Saharan Africa),and of those, nearly80percent areinformally employed. Nearly four in tenpeople live in extreme poverty on less than$2.15 per day (World Bank 2025). With limited local jobs, many Basotho emigrate in search of better opportunities, sending over 20 percent of GDPhome in remittances every year. While the humanitarian impact of remittances is essential, they are limited intheir ability to drive jobs-rich, balanced growth (World Bank 2025). 3.On top of these structural challenges, Lesothofacesa deteriorating external environmentaround trade, aid, and geopolitics. Textiles has been a key sector for lower-skilled employment yet shrunkfrom a peak of 60,000 workers to around 30,000 currently due to declining global competitiveness, and anuncertain future outlook. In particular, textiles dominate exports to the United States (which account for near10 percent of GDP) and could be severely impacted by possible trade policy changes—the African Growth andOpportunity Act (AGOA) may not be extended upon expiration in September, and potentially steep tariffs onexports tothe United States are under discussion. Large cuts to official development assistance also includethe possible cancellation of the Millenium Challenge Compact (MCC), which had been anticipated to kickstartsignificant private sector growth and increase employment opportunities in new sectors. Deepening geoeconomic fragmentation could also reduce growth in key trading partners, most notably South Africa.