能源转型的社会经济足迹：东南亚（第二版）

SOUTHEASTASIA © IRENA 2025 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printedand/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyrightholder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of useand restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any useof such material. ISBN:978-92-9260-689-3 Citation:IRENA (2025),Socio-economic footprint of the energy transition: Southeast Asia (2ndedition),International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Available for download: www.irena.org/publications For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supportscountries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for internationalco-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledgeon renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewableenergy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit ofsustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.www.irena.org Acknowledgements This report was authored by Bishal Parajuli, Gondia Sokhna Seck and Assiya Hasni (IRENA). IRENA expressesgratitude for the valuable contributions made by Nora Yusma binti Mohamed Yusoff (Malaysia UniversitiTenaga Nasional-UNITEN). The modelling results were provided by Alistair Smith, Ha Bui and Jon Stenning(Cambridge Econometrics). The report benefited from the reviews and inputs from IRENA colleagues Adam Adiwinata, Sean Collins,Ricardo Gorini, Hannah Sofia Guinto, Maisarah Abdul Kadir, Karanpreet Kaur and Michael Renner, as well asfrom IRENA technical reviewer Paul Komor. The report also benefited from valuable contributions and thereview of the external expert Badariah Yosiyana (Clean Energy Ministerial). Editorial and publication support was provided by Francis Field and Stephanie Clarke. The report was copy-edited by Steven Kennedy, with design by Myrto Petrou. IRENA would like to thank the Government of Denmark for supporting IRENA in the work that formed thebasis for this report. Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability ofthe material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides awarranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publicationor material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies orcertain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature thatare not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the partof IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiersor boundaries. CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS.............................................................................................................. 6EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................... 71.ASEAN’S TRIPLE CHALLENGE: NAVIGATING GEO-ECONOMICS,REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND THE ENERGY TRANSITION........................................... 112.SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION...................................... 162.1Economic impacts,as measured by GDP...............................................................................162.2Employment................................................................................................................................222.3Welfare.........................................................................................................................................282.CONCLUSION............................................................................................................31REFERENCES...................................................................................................................33ANNEX:COMPARING THE RESULTS OF THE FIRST EDITION (2023)OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT ASSESSMENT AND THIS (2025)UPDATED ASSESSMENT.................................................................................. 35 FIGURES Figure S1GDP in ASEAN region: Percentage differences between the 1.5°C Scenarioand the PES, by driver, 2023-2050...