简报提供了对无声气候风险的见解

By Mark Weatherhead, Guy Carpenter Climate change has become an increasingly important factor innatural peril risk calculations, particularly in the last decade, whenwe have witnessed a substantial increase in both the frequencyand severity of weather-related disasters, most notably floods,hail, severe convective storms and wildfires. There are many notable examples, including high-profile catastrophes such as Super TyphoonYagi in 2024, which caused devastation from the Philippines to Myanmar and claimed more than300 lives in Vietnam, where it was the most powerful typhoon to hit the country in 70 years. Morerecently, in August 2025, Hong Kong suffered its heaviest daily rainfall since records began in the1880s, resulting in widespread localised flooding and landslides. In the aftermath of these events, there is a lot of focus from the media, insurance industry andgeneral public on the potential role that climate change plays in increasing the likelihood andseverity of these events, especially when they have caused large loss of human life. A Gradual Escalation of Claims andFinancial Strain However, there has been less attention paidto the slow, insidious increase in annualinsurance claims driven by “silent climate”events. These small but high-frequencylosses, often overshadowed by more dramatic weather events, quietly drive a steadyaccumulation of claims that erode insurermargins over time, posing a significant long-term challenge to insurers. According to a 2025 UN report from theEconomic and Social Commission for Asiaand the Pacific (ESCAP), one-third ofcountries in Asia Pacific face potential annualeconomic losses of at least 6% of their grossdomestic product (GDP) due to climateshocks such as floods, heatwaves andcyclones. Portfolio Diversification and RiskManagement In the short term, insurers can work todiversify their insurance portfoliosgeographically to help mitigate concentratedrisks in high-exposure areas. This requiresgood risk selection and accumulationmanagement, plus a clear strategic planregarding where they want to grow theirportfolio. Climate change contributes to a gradual risein claims through factors such as rising sealevels, increased weather extremes andpersistent weather pattern shifts.Concurrently, growing exposure fromurbanisation and population growth furtherintensifies the impact of climate-related riskson insurance portfolios. While it is difficult toisolate the exact contribution of each factor,their interconnected effects lead to risinglosses. Risk-based pricing, particularly for newdevelopments and construction companies,can incentivise developers to choose less-risky areas for new builds and localgovernments to consider climate risks whenapproving new developments. This can be offset by increasing the resilienceof buildings and urban areas to extremeweather events, such as through improvedbuilding codes, local flood defences andurban planning. We have seen attempts atthis in the Asia Pacific region, for exampleChina’s “Sponge City” initiative, which aims tobetter manage extreme rainfall through greenspaces to both mitigate flood risk and use thewater to improve the urban and ecologicalenvironment. Limits of TraditionalCatastrophe Models Traditional catastrophe models, designed toassess extreme natural peril risks, oftenoverlook the cumulative impacts of silentclimate risks. By their design, thesecatastrophe models prioritise major events,excluding or minimizing smaller, higher-frequency losses to optimise processingtimes. As a result, insurers mayunderestimate these hidden retained losses,leaving portfolios exposed to unforeseenfinancial strain. In the medium term, insurers can work withtheir underwriters and clients to implementproactive risk management strategies, suchas incentivising resilient infrastructure andbuilding practices, which can reduce futureclaims. Transparency and communicationwith policyholders about climate risks helppromote better risk mitigation at the individualand community levels. Strategic Roadmap for EnhancingInsurance Resilience in aChanging Climate To navigate the evolving climate risklandscape, insurers in Asia Pacific can adopta multifaceted approach to strengthenportfolio resilience, improve risk managementand foster innovation. Advanced Risk Modelling Longer term, insurers can enhance theirinternal risk models by integrating climatescience data and long-term trend analysis tobetter predict increases in the frequency of minor losses. Collaborating with commercialmodel vendors to improve model accuracy iscritical. Model vendors usually have verygood views on natural perils hazards, butoften lack detailed data on location-leveldamages to support the calibration andvalidation of their models. Collaborative Advocacy The insurance industry has a critical societalrole in supporting resilience and recoveryafter disaster. By collaborating withregulators, governments and climatescientists, insurers can developcomprehensive strateg