全球化工：仍在探寻底部

Still Searching for the Floor The global chemicals cycle is weakening beyond priorexpectations. The Braskem situation heightens caution forother global petchem credits and the need for additional duediligence and/or a higher risk premium. We assess risksacross regions and recommend trades to optimize exposure. Edward Brucker, CFA+1 212 526 4435edward.brucker@barclays.comBCI, US Abanikash Rayaji, CFA+1 212 526 9843abanikash.rayaji@barclays.comBCI, US Overview Samantha Kost+1 212 526 4007samantha.kost@barclays.comBCI, US •China creates supply problem, plus weak demand: China’s relentless capacity expansionhas created a global oversupply in chemicals chains including TiO2, PVC, and ethylene andpolyethylene, flooding export markets and driving down prices across regions. This isexacerbated by global demand under pressure across end-markets including constructionand durable goods. James Alistair Cawthorpe+ 44 (0) 20 8773 5888james.cawthorpe@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Braskem case study highlights sector risks:Braskem’s rapid credit deterioration highlightsthe risks of operating in oversupplied chains and relying on high-cost naphtha feedstock. Ridita Noboni44 (0) 20 7773 6122ridita.noboni@barclays.comBarclays, UK •LatAm credits under downgrade risk overhang:Latin American chemical credits faceheightened risk from oversupply and weak spreads, with downgrades likely if earningsdisappoint. Ansel Tessitore+1 212 412 5982ansel.tessitore@barclays.comBCI, US •North America credits' EBITDA deterioration and underperformance:US investment-grade chemical producers like DOW and LYB are seeing EBITDA collapse and rating underpressure as the cycle remains deeply oversupplied. US high-yield chemical credits areunderperforming, especially those exposed to chains like TiO2 swamped by excess Chinesecapacity and weak demand. Claire Dumont Poncet+33 (0) 14458 4090claire.dumontponcet@barclays.comBBI, Paris •The European problem, BASF's self-help measures and Ineos' underperformance:Europe’s chemical sector is losing competitiveness in basic chemicals production mostly, dueto high energy costs, strict carbon policy regulations, and persistent overcapacity, forcingplant closures and asset sales. In IG, BASF's diversification, proactive restructuring andnoncore asset sales are helping to defend its low-A ratings despite weak upstream marginsand therefore spreads have held up well. In contrast, HY spreads are decompressing due tooperational weakness, inflated leverage, and a wave of rating downgrades, especially withinIneos Group Holdings and Ineos Quattro. Roshan Prakash Pande+ 91 (0) 22 6175 1154roshanprakash.pande@barclays.comBarclays, UK Stella Cridge+44 (0) 20 3134 9618stella.cridge@barclays.comBarclays, UK Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 25.Completed: 15-Oct-25, 22:04 GMTReleased: 16-Oct-25, 05:00 GMTRestricted - External •Sasol's business diversification helps mitigate risks from chemicals exposure: Sasol’sdiversified business and self-help measuresoffersome resilience, but its chemicals marginsare under pressure and spreads remain vulnerable. Major Themes in Global Chemicals China Supply Problem China’s aggressive pursuit ofself-sufficiencyhas reshaped the global chemical industry, with itsshare of global chemical capacity surging from around 15% two decades ago to nearly 50%today. While this expansion might have been absorbed under a stronger domestic demandenvironment, the slowdown in China’s real estate sector has triggered broader economicweakness, dampening chemical consumption at home. Despite sluggish domestic growth,China continues to add capacity,oƞendriven by non-economic factors such as a need for jobcreation and rush to build new facilities ahead of stricter environmental regulations.1Thispersistent supply-demand imbalance has led Chinese producers to export excess capacity,particularly to other Asian countries and Europe, exerting downward pressure on globalchemical commodity prices. Theshiƞin the Chinese chemical sector towards exports and resulting downward pressure onprices isaffectingmany chemical chains globally. While a few chains, like methanol, arerelatively better positioned, the broader industry continues to grapple with China-drivenovercapacity. For instance, between 2025 and 2029, CMA projects China to add incrementalethylene capacity exceeding the current total capacity in Europe. In acetyls, over the next threeyears, CMA expects China to add approximately 25% of current global acetic acid capacity andaround 20%