富裕世界面临痛苦的通胀

economist.com/leaders/2025/10/16/the-rich-world-faces-a-painful-bout-of-inflation Listen to this story请听这个故事 0:000:00/ 0:00/ 0:00 Just abouteverywhere you look in the rich world,government finances are in ruins. France, as its debtmounts, is getting through prime ministers faster thanVersailles went through wigs; on October 14thSébastien Lecornu, the latest, proposed delaying anincrease to the retirement age that was meant torestore sanity to the budget. In Japan both rivalcandidates for prime minister want to splash out,despite their country’s vast debts. Britain faces big taxrises to plug a hole in its budget, after welfare reformswere mostly abandoned—and despite a supposedonce-and-for-all tax rise last year. Looming overeverything is America’s unsustainable deficit of 6% ofGDP,which President Donald Trump muses aboutadding to with yet more tax cuts. 在富裕世界的各个地⽅，政府财政都处于崩溃的边缘。法国债务不断攀升，更换总理的速度⽐凡尔赛宫更换假发还快；10⽉14⽇，最新上任的总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼提议推迟原本旨在恢复预算理性的退休年龄提⾼计 划。在⽇本，两位总理候选⼈都希望⼤肆花钱，尽管该国债务已经极其庞⼤。尽管去年已经有所谓的⼀次性增税，但英国仍⾯临⼤规模的税收上涨以填补预算缺⼜，并且福利改⾰基本已被放弃。笼罩在⼀切之上的是美国不可持续的6%的GDP⾚字，特朗普总统甚⾄还在考虑通过更多减税来增加⾚字。 How long can governments live so far beyond theirmeans? Rich-world public debt is already worth 110%ofGDP;before the covid-19 pandemic, it had been sohigh only after the Napoleonic wars. Then, Britain ranalmost a century of tight budgets to pay back itscreditors. Yet, as our special report explains,politicians today struggle to balance the books.政府能在⼊不敷出的状态下⽀撑多久？富裕国家的公共债务已经达到GDP的110%；在新冠疫情之前，只有在拿破仑战争后才出现过如此⾼的债务⽔平。当时，英国⼏乎⽤了⼀个世纪的紧缩预算来偿还债权⼈。然⽽，正如我们的特别报告所解释的，当今政客们难以收⽀平衡。 They cannot avoid rising interest bills and higherdefence spending; ageing populations exert anirresistible electoral pressure to hand over more cash.Tax rises are just as hard. In Europe governmentrevenues are already high; in America taxes are aticket to electoral defeat. Only once in the era ofuniversal suffrage has aG7 economy achieved a big fall in debt primarily by tightening its belt: Canadastarting in the 1990s, at the height of the technocraticera. Do not bet on anyone repeating the trick today.他们⽆法避免不断上升的利息⽀出和更⾼的国防开⽀；⼈⼜⽼龄化对选民施加了难以抗拒的现⾦转移压⼒。增税同样困难。在欧洲，政府收⼊已经很⾼；在美国，增税就意味着选举失败。在普选时代，只有⼀次G7经济体主要通过紧缩预算实现了债务⼤幅下降：那是20世纪90年代的加拿⼤，处于技术官僚时代的⿍盛期。不要指望现在会有⼈重复这⼀招。 You might hope that productivity growth, powered byartificial intelligence (AI), would relieve the state ofdifficult budget choices. But that would be wishfulthinking. Countries tend to grow their way out of debtbecause their workforce is increasing or they are smalland catching up with other economies. Breakthroughtechnologies likeAIare different. Pensions and health-care spending tend to rise with incomes: in big welfarestates they will surge along with productivity. So too,say standard economic models, will interest rates. IfAIhas miraculous effects on growth, today’s exorbitantspending on data centres and chips will become evenbigger. This will lift interest rates, making legacy debtsmore expensive to service and offsetting the fiscalwindfall that comes from faster growth. 你可能希望由⼈⼯智能（AI）驱动的⽣产⼒增长能够缓解艰难的预算选择。但那只是⼀厢情愿的想法。国家通 常通过劳动⼒增加或规模⼩且正在赶上其他经济体来摆脱债务。像⼈⼯智能这样的突破性技术则不同。养⽼⾦和医疗保健⽀出往往随收⼊增长⽽上升：在⼤型福利国家，它们将随⽣产⼒⼀同激增。根据标准经济模型，利率也会如此。如果⼈⼯智能对经济增长产⽣奇迹般的效果，今天在数据中⼼和芯⽚上的⾼额⽀出将变得更⼤。这将推⾼利率，使历史债务的偿还成本更⾼，并抵消来⾃加快增长的财政红利。 It is therefore increasingly likely that governments willinstead resort to inflation and financial repression toreduce the real value of their high debts, as they did inthe decades after the second world war. Themachinery for such a strategy is in place at centralbanks, which have a large footprint in bond markets.Already, populists such as Mr Trump and Nigel Faragein Britain attack their country’s central banks withproposals that would weaken the defences againstinflation. 因此，政府越来越可能会转向通货膨胀和⾦融压制的策略来降低⾼额债务的实际价值，就像⼆战后⼏⼗年间那样。中央银⾏已经为这种策略准备好了机器，它们在债券市场上占据着重要地位。⽬前，特朗普等民粹主义者和英国的奈杰尔·法拉格已经开始攻击本国的中央银⾏，提出⼀些可能会削弱抗通胀防线的建议。 Price rises are unpopular—just ask the hapless JoeBiden—but they do not need political support to get going. Nobody voted for them in the 1970s or in 2022.When governments cannot get their act together, andrun economic policies that are unsustainable, bouts ofinflation just happen. By the time markets wake up, itis too late. 物价上涨并不受欢迎——就问倒霉的乔·拜登就知道了——但它们并不需要政治⽀持就能发⽣。在20世纪70年代或2022年，没有⼈投票⽀持通货膨胀。当政府⽆法整合⾏动，并运⾏不可持续的经济政策时，通货膨胀浪潮就会⾃然发⽣。等到市场意识到时，已经为时已晚。 All the more reason to think ahead and reflect on howinflation harms the economy and society. Itredistributes wealth unfairly: from creditors todebtors; from those with cash and bonds to those whoown real assets such as houses; and from those whoagree on contracts and wages in cash terms to thosewily enough to anticipate higher prices. It causes whatJohn Maynard Keynes called an “arbitraryrearrangement of riches”. And that could happen justas societies are grappling with other transfers ofwealth that the losers will also see as unfair: in thelabour market, asAItakes on routine office work; andthrough inheritance, as baby-boomers bequeath vastproper