台积电3Q25电话会速览：毛利率剑指60%/AI芯片CAGR将优于45%

点评: ➢财务摘要：合并营收为9,899.2亿元，税后净利为4,523.0亿元；2025年第三季毛利率59.5％、逼近6成，营业利益率为50.6％，税后纯益率则为45.7％，每股税后纯益（EPS）为17.44元。第四季指引美元营收介于322亿美元~334亿美元，季减约1%、年增22%；在假设新台币兑美元汇率为30.6元下，毛利率将介于59%至61% ➢AI需求复合增长率：此前指引2024至2029年AI加速器营收增长率中位40%，CC认为实际增长率可能更加乐观，尽管受到中国AI芯片出口限制的影响，将于明年初更新预测 ➢CAPEX：上修了25年CAPEX从中值$40b到中值$41bn，之后将随AI客户维持稳健增长，未来两年仍将持续高档投资，但营收增速将快于Capex增速，延续过去数年资本效率提升趋势。约7成将投入先进制程技术，其余则用于特殊制程与先进封装测试等领域 ➢CoWoS产能：still very tight，台积电非常努力缩小供给缺口，将于明年初更新预测 ➢毛利率：N2将会在2026稀释毛利率但结构性利润率优于N3，N3毛利率稀释减少将逐步恢复公司平均水平，海外FAB的毛利率稀释影响为2-3%，每1%美元兑新台币波动约影响40至50个基点 ➢如何看待Token的指数增长率超过TSMC的AI需求复合增长率：CC认为目前的AI芯片增长速率可以满足Token的指数级增长，因为客户对于芯片的使用越来越有效率 ➢GPU/ASIC对于台积电营收/毛利率的影响：对于TSMC没有differentiation，认为未来几年都将强劲增长 ➢竞争优势vs英特尔：Foundry 2.0战略强调系统层级效能（System-Level Performance），提到台积电正在帮英特尔代工其最新芯片产品，英特尔是个很好的客户，拒评跟英特尔的竞争关系 分析师介绍 分析师赵方舟，香港大学工商管理学学士（会计与金融）毕业，主要覆盖海外硬科技行业，包括AI GPU/ASIC及AI互联。 该分析师2022-2025年曾任职于海通国际研究部，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖海外硬科技行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师覆盖的公司包括:英伟达，AMD，博通，Marvell，台积电，Arista Networks，Celestica等。 邮箱:eugene.zhao@gpf.com.hk电话:(852)6082 5609; (86) 178 9848 1530 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen orresident of or locatedin any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which wouldsubjectGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within suchjurisdiction.