就业、人工智能与贸易

South AsiaOCTOBER 2025 DevelopmentUpdate Jobs, AI, and Trade South AsiaDevelopmentUpdate OCTOBER 2025 South AsiaDevelopmentUpdate ©2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved1 2 3 428 27 26 25 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governmentsthey represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work anddoes not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use ofor failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning thelegal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others doesnot mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities ofThe World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt thiswork, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2025.Jobs, AI, and Trade.South Asia Development Update (October2025). World Bank, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-2291-9. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:Thistranslation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shallnot be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is anadaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of theauthor or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. TheWorld Bank therefore, does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the workwill not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If youwish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and toobtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW,Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-2291-9DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-2291-9 Cover design:David Spours (Cucumber Design). The cutoff date for the data used in the report was September 18, 2025. AI disclosure statement: AI was used in the classification of occupations in the business services sector in Chapter 2. ChatGPT-4owas used during June and July 2025 to classify occupations. A list of all 4-digit ISCO occupation names, descriptions, and codeswas uploaded to the chatbot interface, along with a series of prompts requesting ChatGPT to identify occupations associated withthe business services sector based on how occupational descriptions matched with core business services jobs, including IT,software development, and back office functions. All AI-generated outputs were carefully reviewed for accuracy, and substantialrevisionswere made based on manual reading of the occupation classifications.Further details are available in annex2.2. NotebookLM powered by Google Gemini 2.5 Pro was used during July and August 2025 to review the full text of academicarticles and to identify relevant papers for a meta-analysis. The main prompt used was: “For the uploaded articles, could you identifywhich papers estimate the impact of trade liberalization or tariff change on employment, wage, or productivity?” All AI-generatedoutputs were carefully reviewed for accuracy, and substantial revisions were made based