全球能源存储：为何储能需求激增？

Global Energy Storage: Why is ESS demand booming? China’s booming ESS demand growth is fueled by low battery prices and favorableESS policies.China’s ESS battery prices have fallen by 50% since 2023 to RMB0.54/Wh(USD76/kWh) year-to-date. Recent prices have fallen further to RMB0.47/Wh (USD66/kWh) or RMB1.00 (USD140/kWh) including EPC costs. While lower battery prices are aprimary driver for ESS growth, increasing renewable penetration, ongoing power pricereform, and local government ESS incentives have all been supportive. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Since 2023, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar and storage (4-hrs) hasfallen by 25% to $68/MWh.We have modeled a 1GW/4GWh solar plus storage projectbased on Xinjiang’s solar irradiation profile, assuming current solar cost of USD600/kWand ESS cost of USD140/kWh. At an IRR of 8%, the LCOE for the project is estimated to be$68/MWh. Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Local governments’ capacity compensation schemes further enhance the returns onESS investments.Assuming capacity compensation of RMB0.16/kWh (USD22/MWh) percharge, then this reduces the solar and storage LCOE to $60/MWh. Many provinces haveintroduced relevant policies to give capacity compensation for new ESS capacity, and it isexpected that nearly 20 provinces will follow up with such policies by the end of the year. China’s solar and storage costs are increasingly competitive across China.China’s wholesale benchmark prices based on coal-fired power generation ranges from USD35-65/MWh. In comparison, solar plus storage projects offer compelling economics,with costs around $43/MWh for a 2-hour storage system and $57/MWh for a 4-hoursystem. This cost advantage highlights significant growth potential. Falling battery prices have enabled longer-duration storage solutions.Assumingelectricity price of $50/MWh, solar and storage projects with 3-4 hours of batteries canachieve 8% IRR at current ESS cost of $140/kWh. Just a year ago, a project with similarreturn would only be competitive at 2-3 hours of storage. We forecast global ESS demand to increase 93% to 581GWh in 2025 and reach1588GWh by 2030 (23% CAGR).Our estimates are now 60% higher than initialestimates at the start of the year.With the integration of large-scale solar and windpower system, the grid will require more storage to maintain stability and for power shifting.We expect solar and wind capacity will grow from 3.3TW in 2024 to 8.5TW by 2030,representing 54% of total power capacity globally. We expect ESS capacity will reach 10%of renewable capacity in 2026 (from 1% four years ago) and rise to 19% by 2030. We alsoexpect the storage duration to increase from 2.5 hours currently to 3.0 hours by 2030. CATL and Sungrow stands as key beneficiaries of the ESS demand boom.Bothcompanies are industry leaders with strong technological capabilities and robust marketpositions, well-positioned to capitalize on the accelerating demand for ESS. Among ourcoverage, CATL remains our top pick in the battery sector and leads with top ESS batterycells globally. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS ESS demand is growing much quicker than we expected as the cost of solar and storage have come down significantly. Aspower consumption continues to grow rapidly on data centers, EVs, air-conditioning, demand for energy storage will onlyincrease. Moreover, the substitution of base load power (coal) with renewable energy will also likely increase for solar plusstorage. Given the more positive view on energy storage, we have revised up our global 2030 ESS demand by 60% since thestart of the year. CATL (rated Outperform) remains our top pick in the sector. Sungrow (rated Market-Perform) is also anotherway to invest in this theme. DETAILS WHAT’S DRIVING CHINA’S ESS DEMAND GROWTH? China's ESS demand remains robust despite concerns following the release of Policy Document No. 136, which planned toremove the ESS mandate for renewable projects after May. Battery tenders is a leading indicator of battery installations. YTD,ESS tenders grew significantly by 167% y-o-y. According to S&E Consulting's tracking data, in August 2025, China's energystorage market completed tenders for a total of 25.8GW / 69.4GWh of ESS and EPC (including equipment) general contracting.Additionally, 13.3GWh of energy storage cells and DC-side procurement were finalized. The Inner Mongolia market showedparticularly strong demand, completing 18.5GWh of ESS project procurement. China is experiencing a significant surge in demand for ESS, and this growth is mainly fueled by the substantial reduction inbattery costs combined with a range of supportive policies aimed at promoting ESS adoption. Since 2023, the prices of ESSbatteries in China have decreased dramatically by approximately 50%, reaching an average cost of RMB0.54/Wh (USD76/kWh). Recent marke