中国住房大萧条：我们现在在哪里

Where AreWeNow? Tianlei HuangResearch Fellow and China Program CoordinatorOctober 8, 2025 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW| Washington, DC 20036 |www.piie.com While official price data show only modest declines, private sectordata point to steeper price declines When will the Chinese housing crisis bottom out? Real housing price indexes in China, the US, Ireland, Spain, and Japan since the housing market peaks Housing has lost its status as the preferred investment class byChinese households a. Real returns on household one-year bank deposits andrealyoychange of NBS 70-city housing prices China’s Great Housing Slump |5Note: The Income Confidence Index is published directly by the PBOC in its quarterly urban depositor survey reports. It is adiffusion index calculated byexcluding uncertain responses and assigning weights of 1 to the share of households expecting income to increase and 0.5 to those expecting it to remainunchanged. The Housing Price Confidence Index is constructed by the author using PBOC survey data and applying the same methodology as the IncomeConfidence Index. The real returns on bank deposits are the nominal deposit rates minus CPI inflation. Potential upsides of the housing slump? Sources and notes: Price-to-income ratios are author’s calculations based on data fromNational Bureau of Statistics of China and local statistical bureaus. Thecalculation follows the same formula used byNumbeo, assuming that net disposable household income equals 1.5 times the per capita average disposableincome, and that the median apartment size is 90 square meters. Provincial total fertility rates are from China’s 2020 population census. China’s Great Housing Slump |6 China’s Great Housing Slump: Where Are We Now? Tianlei Huangthuang@piie.com