从货架到系统：为何消费品的未来将变得面目全非

From shelves tosystems: Why thefuture of consumergoods will beunrecognizable Five years from now, people won’tshop like they do today — is yourbusiness ready? Every generation of commerce has its defining shift — from generalstores to supermarkets, from shopping malls to ecommerce. Butwhat’s coming next is going to be a full-scale upheaval in how peoplediscover, choose and buy household essentials. The invisible disruption Picture this: It’s 7:42 am on a weekday morning in 2030, and the houseis already in motion. Vanessa, the CFO at a commercial real estate firm,is running late. Her daughter Maya is still eating cereal. Her son Miles isbouncing a basketball by the door. “Mom, we’re out of shampoo,”Maya says. “Got it,” Vanessa replies, grabbing the lunch boxes. Without breakingstride, she speaks to her phone: “Order the usual, but less sugar in thesoda. And sulfate-free shampoo for curly hair.” Her AI assistant doesn’t need clarification. It remembers who likes what.Adds in a free sample of fair-trade dark chocolate and protein bars —algorithm-approved. The groceries will beat her home. She won’t thinkabout it again. No list. No cart. No run to the store. Just the quiet logic of a systemthat knows what you need. An almost invisible shopping experience. What’s next:Kitchens that keeptheir own lists By 2030, even Vanessa’s “invisible shopping experience” could feel slow — ifconsumers adopt AI at speed and scale. The connected fridge won’t just trackinventory; it could replenish staples like milk and vegetables, automaticallyaligned to household routines. Perhaps Vanessa won’t even place an order. In the future, her AI agent will —a digital assistant, powered by GenAI, that could act on her behalf. Unlike asimple chatbot or recommendation engine, an AI agent could be designed toautonomously perceive, decide and act across the shopping journey. It mightknow Vanessa’s spending thresholds, her values, her tastes. If she watches achef making miso tofu and shaved cucumber salad, the AI agent could parsethe recipe and send ingredients so she can cook the dish that night. Contextbecomes command. Discovery blurs into fulfilment. The most successful CPG companies won’t just respond to demand —they’ll anticipate it, at the speed of life. That shift is already underway:PwC’s 2025 Future of Consumer Shopping Survey finds that millennialsexpect their technology use to rise significantly over the next five years. 62% of millennials expect toorder more online and46% expect to increaseautomated reorderingthrough smart devices. For business leaders, it’s important to remember that the most significantconsumer disruptions don’t happen in boardrooms. They start in kitchenslike Vanessa’s, in the micro-moments between packing lunches and findingcar keys. Just consider what has already happened with the unprecedentedvelocity of AI, the rising adoption of GLP1s and the Make America HealthyAgain (MAHA) movement. These aren’t short-term trends — they’re signalsthat consumer behavior is being reprogramed. While today’s market brings affordability pressures, private label gainsand operational constraints, those very challenges make it more urgent tobegin building the capabilities needed for what’s next. In tomorrow’s world,where everyone has their own personal AI assistant, the companies thatreset for consumer intimacy and real-time engagement now will be the onespositioned to grow as traditional models lose their relevance. But what will ittake for more consumers to trust AI to shop on their behalf? According to oursurvey, people want clear guardrails that will make the process feel safeand transparent. N/A – I already feel comfortable letting an AI assistant have financial access The company behindthe virtual cart: A newengine for growth Historically, CPG companies thrived on a simple premise — control the shelf.Prime placement in grocery aisles, mass advertising campaigns and well-timed discounts turned browsing into buying. But in a world where moredecisions are made before a shopper ever sets foot in a store, if they go atall, that model is eroding. The companies gaining ground don’t look like the old guard. In manycases, they’re lean — with fewer than 300 employees in some cases.They manage content in-house. They connect the dots between creatorbuzz, product trials and retail sell-through in real time. They don’t winbecause they outspend the market. They win because they out-listen.They’re built not for scale, but for signals. “We don’t do focus groups. Our team reflects ourcommunity — diverse, Gen Z, millennials. They livehow our consumers live. That gives us bettersignals than a survey.” Tarang Amin,CEO of e.l.f. Beauty According toPwC’s 2025 CPG Executive Survey, nearly half of leadersbelieve their current business structures won’t survive the decade.The question is, where willvalue come from in the future? They know it won’t come from squeezing already thin margins or expandingSKUs. It will come from rese