出口包容性测量

Measuring Export Inclusiveness © 2025, United Nations The work is available through open access, by complying with the Creative Commons licencecreated for intergovernmental organizations, athttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and donot necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States. The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not implythe expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legalstatus of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation ofits frontiers or boundaries. Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits. This publication has not been formally edited. United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD/DITC/TAB/2025/3 eISBN: 978-92-1-154568-5 Acknowledgements This document was prepared by Alessandro Nicita of the UNCTAD Division on International Tradeand Commodities, with inputs and comments from various colleagues at the Division and fromthe UNCTAD Statistics Service. UNCTAD gratefully acknowledges the contributions to the document of Emmanuel Milet andMarcelo Olarreaga. Desktop publishing was carried out by Danièle Arbinet-Boglio of UNCTAD. The underlying data for the document are available upon request attab@unctad.org. Table of contents Acknowledgements.....................................................................................iiiSummary.......................................................................................................v1.Data.....................................................................................................12.Measuring export inclusiveness.........................................................53.Inclusiveness of exports and countries..............................................94.Impact of export inclusiveness on GDP per capita.........................235.Concluding remarks..........................................................................27References.................................................................................................30 Summary Understanding how inclusive trade is has become increasingly relevant ascountries aim to promote equitable economic outcomes. This note proposesa method to evaluate how inclusive a country’s exports are by consideringkey economic dimensions. The proposed indicators allow for comparisonsacross countries and overtime, providing insights into how a country’s tradecomposition relates to broader economic outcomes, including income growthand social equity. Building on Hausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik(2007), this technical note presents amethodology to estimate the inclusivenessof an export product across three economicdimensions: income equality, genderequality, and labour market formality.Using this product-level measure, thenote constructs a country-level exportinclusiveness index by calculating theexport-weighted average of productinclusiveness scores. Finally, it examines therelationship between export inclusivenessand GDP per capita growth, finding that a1 percent increase in export inclusiveness—controlling for total export value and ameasure of overall national inclusiveness—is associated with a 0.21 percentincrease in GDP per capita growth. Addressing inclusiveness presents twomain challenges. First, the conceptitself is broad and interpreted differentlyacross contexts. To operationalize it, thisnote utilizes three variables to representeconomic inclusiveness: income equality,gender equality, and the share of formalemployment in the labour force. While thisselection does not capture the full range ofinclusivity—such as the representation ofminorities and indigenous populations inthe labour market—it offers the advantageof consistent data availability acrosscountries, a key requirement for the appliedmethodology. However, the approach isflexible and can incorporate additionaldimensions of inclusiveness if relevant databecomes available. The second challengeinvolves quantifying the inclusivenessof a country’s export bundle. This isaddressed by extending the framework ofHausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik (2007),which emphasizes the importance of whata country exports. As a first step, countriesare classified into “inclusive” and “less-inclusive” groups using an unsupervisedclustering algorithm based on the threeselected inclusiveness indicators.1 Understanding the inclusiveness of tradeis increasingly important as countriesimplement industrial and trade policiesaimed at fostering more equitable forms ofproduction (UNCTAD 2022, 2025; UnitedNations 2024). As economies considershifting toward sectors that are moreinclusive, it becomes crucial to assessthe associated economic trade-offs.A key question is whether reallocatingresources to thes