就业与繁荣：欧洲和中亚经济更新

Office of the Chief EconomistFall 2025Europe and Central Asia Economic Update Jobs and Prosperity Office of the Chief Economist Some rights reserved 1 2 3 428 27 26 25 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of ExecutiveDirectors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness,or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, ordiscrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other informationshown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of anyterritory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does notmean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges andimmunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free tocopy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Cusolito, Ana Paula, Ivailo Izvorski, Sergiy Kasyanenko, Michael M.Lokshin, and Iván Torre. 2025.Jobs and Prosperity.Europe and Central Asia Economic Update (Fall), Washington,DC: World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-2301-5. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are thesole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained withinthe work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual componentor part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting fromsuch infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibilityto determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW,Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-2301-5DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-2301-5 Cover image:Shutterstock/Everett Collection and GorodenkoffCover design:Sergio Andres Moreno Tellez//World Bank Creative Services, Global Corporate Solutions. AI Disclosure Statement: mAI 4.0, developed by Azure OpenAI and Google Gemini for World Bank Group, andM365 Copilot by Microsoft were used in September 2025 for minor editing of portions of the text. Contents Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vAbbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .viCountry codes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .viiRegional classification used in this report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .viiiExecutive summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ix PART I. Recent Developments, Policies, and Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Recent economic developments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Economic policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15Outlook: Moderate growth, rising risks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .