赞比亚：增强对气候冲击的抵御能力（英）

Zambia: BuildingResilience to ClimateShocks Linda Spahia SIP/2025/127 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed onJune 30, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/242. 2025SEP IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican Department Zambia: Building Resilience to Climate ShocksPrepared by Linda Spahia Authorized for distribution byMercedes Vera Martn and Steven QiSeptember2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onJune 30,2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/242. ABSTRACT:Zambia faces growing challenges from climate-related natural disasters, particularly floods anddroughts, which have become more frequent and severe in recent years. These events disproportionatelyaffect the country’s large agricultural sector—especially vulnerable subsistence farmers—and the reliance onhydroelectric power makes it susceptible to drought-related disruptions in electricity supply, with cascadingeffects across the economy. In response, Zambia has identified its adaptation priorities and has developed acomprehensive legal and policy framework that aligns climate resilience with its long-term development agendathrough national and sectoral strategies. However, implementation remains constrained by limited coordinationacross government levels and the absence of robust systems to track climate-related expenditures within thenational budget. Effective implementation will depend on its ability to mobilize resources—both throughdomestic revenue and by attracting external financing. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Spahia, Linda, 2025, Zambia: Building Resilience to Climate Shocks.IMFSelected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/127). Washington, D.C., International Monetary Fund. Zambia: Building Resilience toClimate Shocks The Republic of Zambia Prepared by Linda Spahia1 ZAMBIA: BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE SHOCKS Zambia faces growing challenges from climate-related natural disasters, particularly floods anddroughts, which have become more frequent and severe in recent years. These events disproportionatelyaffect the country’s large agricultural sector—especially vulnerable subsistence farmers—and the relianceon hydroelectric power makes it susceptible to drought-related disruptions in electricity supply, withcascading effects across the economy. In response, Zambia has identified its adaptation priorities and hasdeveloped a comprehensive legal and policy framework that aligns climate resilience with its long-termdevelopment agenda through national and sectoral strategies. However, implementation remainsconstrained by limited coordination across government levels and the absence of robust systems to trackclimate-related expenditures within the national budget. Effective implementation will depend on itsability to mobilize resources—both through domestic revenue and by attracting external financing. A.Context 1.Zambia faces increasing risks from climate change, which pose serious threats to itseconomic and social development.A large proportion of the population depends on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water, forestry and energy, exposing the country to growing risksrelated to food security, health, and livelihoods. The 2023–2024 El Niño event underscored thisvulnerability by triggering a prolonged drought, widespread crop failures, energy shortages, andeconomic disruptions. This shock further strained Zambia’s fiscal position, highlighting the macrocritical need for strengthened adaptation and resilience-building policies. 2.Zambia is rich in natural resources but remains highly vulnerable to shocks.Theeconomy’s heavy dependence on natural resources, particularly the dominant mining sector, exposesit to substantial external price volatility. Agriculture, which is predominantly rain-fed and largelysubsistence-based, is increasingly affected by more frequent and severe weather events. In addition,Zambia’s reliance on hydropower for electricity generation heightens its sensitivity to changing rainfallpatterns. The government’s Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP) prioritizes economicdiversification, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability. However, building resilience andimplementing effective adaptation policies remain challenging, particularly in the context of limitedfiscal space. 3.Climate change intersects with other critical challenges such as high debt levels, limitedfiscal space, and widespread poverty and inequality.Climate-change related shocks intensify thecountry’s socio-economic vulnerabilities, cause damage to its infrastructure and disrupt economicactivity, constraining the government’s institutional and fiscal capacity to respon