增强马绍尔群岛对自然灾害和气候变化的抵御能力：马绍尔群岛共和国（英）2025

Building Resilience toNatural Disasters andClimate Change in theMarshall Islands Xin Li, Azar Sultanov, and Taku Zakoji SIP/2025/150 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on October 7, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/322. 2025DEC IMF Selected Issues PaperAsia and Pacific Department Building Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Marshall IslandsPrepared by Xin Li, Azar Sultanov, and Taku Zakoji Authorized for distribution by Lamin LeighDecember 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on October 7, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No25/322. ABSTRACT:The Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) faces severe challenges due to its vulnerability to climatechange and natural disasters, resulting in economic repercussions such as erosion, flooding, droughts, anddamage to essential infrastructure. Leveraging a dynamic general equilibrium model—Debt, Investment,Growth, and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD) Model, this paper shows that resilient infrastructure investments andeffective public investment management can significantly reduce GDP contraction following rapid onset andslow-moving natural disaster shocks. Tax reform, featured by a permanent increase in the VAT rate, helpsfacilitate infrastructure restoration against persistent sea-level rise and boost private investment and long-termgrowth despite dampened consumption. To address substantial financing needs for climate-resilientinfrastructure, maximizing climate funding is essential, which includes improving domestic revenue collectionand mobilizing external resources from the renewed Compact and development partners. RMI must alsostrengthen its institutional capacity to access climate finance effectively. Given the limited financial envelope,prioritizing adaptation actions while maintaining fiscal sustainability is vital for the country's future resilience. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Xin L., Azar S., and Taku Z. (2025). “Building Resilience to Natural Disastersand Climate Change in the Marshall Islands,” IMF Selected Issues Paper No.25/150. International MonetaryFund, Washington D.C. Building Resilience to NaturalDisasters and Climate Change inThe Marshall Islands Republic of the Marshall Islands Prepared by Xin Li, Azar Sultanov, and Taku Zakoji1 REPUBLIC OF THEMARSHALL ISLANDS SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedBy Prepared ByXin Li,Taku Zakoji(both APD), and AzarSultanov (RES). Asia and PacificDepartment CONTENTS BUILDING RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THEMARSHALL ISLANDS __________________________________________________________________2 A. Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and Climate Change _______________________________2B. Model-Based Scenario Analysis _______________________________________________________5C. Simulation Results __________________________________________________________________10D. Concluding Remarks________________________________________________________________14 FIGURES 1. Simulation Results under One-off Natural Disaster__________________________________122. Simulation Results under Recurring Natural Disaster________________________________13 TABLES 1 Access to External Climate Finance ____________________________________________________52. Calibrated Parameters and Steady State Values _______________________________________83. Financing of Standard Public Infrastructure Investment at the Steady State___________94. Financing of Public Infrastructure Investment—Deviation from Steady State _________9 References_____________________________________________________________________________16 BUILDING RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS ANDCLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS The Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) faces severe challenges due to its vulnerability to climatechange and natural disasters, resulting in economic repercussions such as erosion, flooding, droughts,and damage to essential infrastructure. Leveraging a dynamic general equilibrium model—Debt,Investment, Growth, and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD) Model, this paper shows that resilientinfrastructure investments and effective public investment management can significantly reduce GDPcontraction following rapid onset and slow-moving natural disaster shocks. Tax reform, featured by apermanent increase in the VAT rate, helps facilitate infrastructure restoration against persistent sea-level rise and boost private investment and long-term growth despite dampened consumption. Toaddress substantial financing needs for climate-resilient infrastructure, maximizing climate funding isessential, which includes improving domestic revenue collection and mobi