2025年全球材料展望

October 2025 About this report TheGlobal Materials Perspective 2025is produced byMcKinsey’s Global Energy & Materials Practice. Building onthe previous year’s report, this year’s Perspective exploresmaterials demand across three energy transition scenarios(as defined in ourGlobal Energy Perspective 2025) as well asthree supply scenarios, based on asset-level data modeledby MineSpans. Our aim is to provide insight into the changingavailability, affordability, and sustainability of materials,including those that are critical to the energy transition and theexpansion of digital infrastructure. are required in one or several low-carbon technologiescompared with conventional technologies and aretherefore frequently growing faster than in the previousdecade (for example, copper, lithium, and rare earthelements [REEs]) form the basis of McKinsey’s industry perspectives to helpempower decision-makers. About Energy Solutions by McKinsey:Energy Solutions isMcKinsey’s global market intelligence and analytics groupfocused on the energy sector. The group enables organizationsto make well-informed strategic, tactical, and operationaldecisions by using an integrated suite of market models,proprietary industry data, leading industry benchmarks,advanced analytical tools, and a global network of industryexperts. It helps leading companies across the entire energyvalue chain manage risk, optimize organization, and improveperformance. —Materials for which demand is largely and negativelyaffected by the energy transition because these materialsare fundamental to conventional technologies, which arelikely to be gradually phased out in the coming decades(with thermal coal a prime example) While the materials industry spans a broad range ofsubindustries—including metals and mining, building materials(concrete and cement, glass, and more), plastics, and pulp andpaper—this report focuses primarily on metals and mining,which can be categorized along the following long-termdemand trends driven by the energy transition: In the coming months, we plan to issue separate publicationson the latest dynamics in the plastics and lumber industries. About McKinsey & Company:McKinsey is a global managementconsulting firm committed to helping organizations acceleratesustainable and inclusive growth. The firm works with clientsacross the private, public, and social sectors to solve complexproblems and create positive changes for all their stakeholders.It combines bold strategies and transformative technologies tohelp organizations innovate more sustainably, achieve lastinggains in performance, and build workforces that will thrive forthis generation and those to come. TheGlobal Materials Perspectiveis powered by MineSpans,which is part of McKinsey’s Global Energy and MaterialsPractice. MineSpans is a leading and comprehensivemetals and mining market intelligence solution, combiningMcKinsey’s global expertise with proprietary data to providean independent and holistic view on commodity markets. Builtby our commodities experts and covering more than 14,000global assets across more than 15 commodity value chains, ourdetailed bottom-up supply and demand forecasts, granularcost models, and environmental, social, and governance data —Materials for which demand is only to a small extentdriven by the speed of the energy transition and that areconsequently trending in line with the growth of globalGDP and the growing middle class (for example, steeland aluminum) —Materials for which demand is largely and positivelyaffected by the energy transition because the materials Foreword (1/2) In the past year,the materials industry has once againseen several shifts: increasing resource nationalism andprotectionism, the rise of new demand vectors from AI anddefense, emerging signs of a productive rebound, and theslowdown of decarbonization in selected regions. Lookingahead, success likely requires capturing growth whileimproving productivity and delivering sustainable solutions. bold innovation in technology, processes, and electrificationhas accelerated. Against this backdrop, capital markets have remained strong,with total shareholder returns (TSR) growing 3.5 times andmarket capitalization doubling since 2015. In summary, the materials industry has seen four significantshifts since last year’s report: Overall, the materials industry contracted in 2024, withmetals and mining revenues down 6 percent to approximately$3 trillion, partially offset by growth in other materials sectors,while profitability remained resilient at about $1.3 trillion(with metals and mining accounting for $700 billion), comingwith a shift in profit pools from thermal coal and steel towardgold, copper, and aluminum, a shift that has been ongoing forseveral years. —Geopolitics and a global landscape where globalizationis changing but not disappearinghave led to increasedresource nationalism or protectionism.² This has createdadditional risks, such as inaccessible end markets