大额美元空头正转变为令投资者痛苦的交易

The Big Dollar Short Is Turning Into aPain Trade for Investors ⼤额美元空头正转变为令投资者痛苦的交易 ByCarter JohnsonandAnya Andrianova卡特·约翰逊与安娜·安德⾥亚诺娃撰⽂October 10, 2025 at 8:00 AM GMT+8 Betting against the dollar has been the dominant tradethis year in the $9.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchangemarket, but the wager is starting to stumble. 在每天9.6万亿美元的外汇市场中，做空美元今年⼀直是主导交易，但这⼀押注开始动摇。 The world’s primary reserve currency is around a two-month high even as the US government shutdowndrags on, andtraders in Asia and Europe sayhedgefunds are adding options bets that the rebound versus most major peers will extend into year-end. 尽管美国政府停摆持续，全球主要储备货币美元仍处于约两个⽉⾼点，亚洲和欧洲的交易员表⽰，对冲基⾦正在增加期权押注，认为美元相对⼤多数主要货币的反弹将延续⾄年末。 Overseas developments have been a key driver, withthe euro and the yen falling abruptly this month. At thesame time, comments from Federal Reserve officialsurging caution around further interest-rate cuts haveboosted the dollar’s appeal. 海外形势是主要推动因素，本⽉欧元和⽇元都出现了急剧下跌。与此同时，美联储官员关于对进⼀步降息保持谨慎的表态也增强了美元的吸引⼒。 The longer the strength persists, the more painful it isfor those sticking with calls for the greenback to takeanother leg lower. Among the bears: Goldman SachsGroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley. 美元⾛强持续得越久，对于那些坚持认为美元将再次下跌的多头来说就越痛苦。唱空者包括：Goldman SachsGroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co.和Morgan Stanley。 The trend, if it continues, could reverberate across theglobal economy, for example making it harder for othercentral banks to ease monetary policy, pushing up thecost of commodities and increasing the burden of foreign borrowings in the currency. 如果这⼀趋势持续，可能在全球经济范围内产⽣连锁反应，例如使其他央⾏更难以放松货币政策、推⾼⼤宗商品成本并增加以该货币计价的外债负担。 A rapid rebound could derail bullishexpectationsforemerging-market equities and bonds in the finalquarter of the year and also risks weighing on theshares of American exporters. 快速反弹可能扰乱市场对今年最后⼀个季度新兴市场股票和债券的看涨预期，并且也可能对美国出⼜商的股票造成压⼒。 CountEd Al-Hussainyat Columbia Threadneedleamong dollar pessimists who have flipped their view.The portfolio manager went short at the end of 2024when the greenback was still rallying as part of the so-called Trump trade after the US election. 把Columbia Threadneedle的Ed Al-Hussainy列⼊那些已经改变看法的美元悲观者名单。这位投资组合经理在2024年年底做空，当时美元在美国⼤选后的所谓“特朗普交易”中仍在反弹。 Over the past month and a half he’s trimmed thatstance by reducing exposure to emerging markets. Forhim it boils down to markets leaning too heavily towardFed rate cuts given the resilience of the American economy. 在过去⼀个半⽉⾥，他通过减少对新兴市场的敞⼜来收紧这种⽴场。对他⽽⾔，归结为市场在美联储降息问题上押注过重，⽽美国经济表现出韧性。 “We have become a lot more positive on the dollar,” hesaid. “The markets have priced in a very aggressiveseries of cuts, and it’s going to be difficult to executethem without a lot more labor-market pain.” “我们对美元的看法变得更为积极了，”他说。“市场已经计⼊了⼀系列⾮常激进的降息⾏动，要在没有⼤幅劳动⼒市场痛苦的情况下执⾏这些降息将很困难。” The Dollar's Steep Losses Have Eased Since July⾃七⽉以来，美元的⼤幅下跌已有所缓解 Bloomberg's greenback gauge is up some 2% in second half彭博的美元指标在下半年上涨了约2% 注：数据截⾄纽约时间10⽉9⽇15:00。 TheBloomberg Dollar Spot Indexis now up roughly 2%since mid-year, after its steepest first-half slide indecades. In early 2025, after PresidentDonald Trumpheld off on applying across-the-board tariffs once hetook office, the greenback slid in part on the view thatinflation would be tame enough for the Fed to resumelowering rates. 彭博美元现货指数⾃年中以来已上涨约2%，此前上半年经历了数⼗年来最陡峭的下滑。2025年初，在唐纳德·特朗普总统就任后没有⽴即实施全⾯关税时，美元部分下跌，原因是市场认为通胀将⾜够温和，美联储可以恢复降息。 The slump deepened with his rollout of sweeping leviesin April, which fueled worries that foreign investorswouldsour on the USamid the trade war. There wasalso speculation that the president favored a weakerdollar, which would help US exporters, on top of hispressure on the Fed to slash rates, all of whichamplified the bearish wave. 今年四⽉他推出全⾯关税后，美元的下跌进⼀步加剧，这加剧了⼈们对贸易战中外国投资者会对美国失去兴趣的担忧。还有猜测认为，总统偏好⾛弱的美元以帮助美国出⼜商，再加上他对美联储施压要求⼤幅降息，所有这些因素共同放⼤了看跌潮。 As it turned out, however, international investorshaven’t shunned the US, although there are signsthey’ve beenbuying derivativesto protect againstdollar losses. The lure of US equities, led by megacaptechnology shares, has been too great. And overseasdemand at Treasury auctions has been mostly solid. 然⽽事实证明，国际投资者并没有回避美国，尽管有迹象表明他们⼀直在购买衍⽣品以对冲美元贬值风险。以⼤型科技股为⾸的美国股票的吸引⼒过于强⼤。此外，海外对国债拍卖的需求总体上⼀直稳健。 While the latest Commodity Futures TradingCommissiondatashow that hedge funds, assetmanagers and commodity trading advisers were stillshort the greenback as of late September, those positions are well below the peak reached at mid-year. 尽管最新的美国商品期货交易委员会数据显⽰，截⾄九⽉底，对冲基⾦、资产管理公司和商品交易顾问仍然做空美元，但这些头⼨远低于年中达到的峰值。 Hedge funds ramping up bullish option trades on thedollar into year-end are expressing that view againstmost Group-of-10 currencies, according toMukundDaga, global head of currency options at Barclays BankPlc. 巴克莱银⾏全球货币期权主管Mukund Daga表⽰，进⼊年末，对冲基⾦在美元上加⼤看涨期权交易的押注，这种看法是针对⼤多数⼗国集团货币的。 Dollar Advances Toward Key Resistance Levels: MajorTechs 美元逼近关键阻⼒位：主要技术指标 There are also signs that options traders are payingmore to hedge against the risk of a dollar rally tha