货币与金融稳定情况半年度报告（2025年9月）

20259 2.6 2.162.28 4.1204.2214.3254.4274.529 1. () 4 1 2 20255.3%5% 320182024 2025 4 4568 202520242025 568 4 202513.4%20252.5%2025 202521172.8%100%2025624.4%8% 2. 2.1 4217%2.1 1 73.453055%9 925 242.2 2.31 810% 42025520254.5%5.0% 2.2 20255.3%5%2.423 (CPI)2025–0.1%CPI85.3%16–2425–2918.9%7.2% 2025222.582.6 20252.A6249.2%7 482.7 6 7202572.B 1 10201320247236202450%11 8 92024 2) S&P Capital IQ123,91074020241.213 1) (a)Center for International & Security Studies atMaryland(b) European Repository of CyberIncidents(c) Board Cybersecurity(d)Center for Strategic and International Studies 1) 14B1.1102.9%0.2%501.2% 2) 15 10B1.2 5014.9 International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024).Chapter 3: Cyber Risk: A Growing Concern forMacrofinancial Stability. Global FinancialStability Report. Investment Company Institute.(2025).Worldwide Regulated Open-End Fund Assets andFlows First Quarter 2025. 2 2024 (greenfield foreign directinvestment)16 Orbis(textual analysis)17 202517 18B2.1 •B2.2 • •B2.3 B2.2 19 3. 3.22020252 3.1 2025123.0%3.1%3.A11.8%20.4%3.1 202521 3.2 202533.2%83.7%2024123.323,24 20252%–3%22 3.3 2025121.2%1.1%202581.1%3.4 20251.5%1.8%25 4. 4.1 44.151,294 681,1998 2447581,74185414.2 4.3 265684.5 4.2 2025820,140 20257.8%4.9%10.2%4.4 32018202420182020 273202542%2%4.6 2025912.5202513.51%202572.40% 2025202573.4%10,3884.74.A1.3%32.4% 202516.0%202585,7904.886,9621.3%202527,597202433,271 282025622IBPSFPS2920256 20252 29202410 4.3 42811.3% 44.92025289.8%9.3%4.10 450044.11 30202520251,0714.13 2025287,0064.1217.6%2025846,767 4.431 1044.1432 10 202511.5%28,28739.4%7,1944.15 324 2024202520254,49220245.8%4.172024120.9%2025612,714 8.7%2025630,1574.1613.2%2025616,904 3334, 35 4.5 2025125914,06425,585785,5294.18 30 100100481.3%1.2%4.189 20252025212.6255.7%4.19362025283.1%4.2073.2% 340,741637,8064.2170.13%37 40 763%40% 41 202520242913684.234.244.25202573.5%–4.1% 384.2239 42 3 42 B3.1B3.120182024 4344 20182024(1)2022(2) 313 (1) B3.120182024213345 453 30 B3.2134748 (2) 101015Armantier et al.(2024)46 5,370Furfine(1999) B3.2313=1.6%1=4.4%B3.23133=35.21=47.8 Armantier, O., Cipriani, M. and Sarkar, A. (2024).Discount Window Stigma After the FinancialCrisis.Federal Reserve Bank of New York StaffReport. no.1137 November. Furfine, C. (1999). The Microstructure of theFederal Funds Markets.Financial Markets,Institutions, and Instruments, 8(5), 24-44. Winters, B. (2012). Review of the Bank ofEngland’s Framework for Providing Liquidity tothe Banking System.The Court of the Bank ofEngland. October 2012. 20182020 5. 5.1 492025202413.4%20251.27%20241.19%5.1 52025269202561.68%5.368 98202561.26%5.3 20241.51%20251.47%5.2 5.2 2025212172.8%66.8%5A100%25% 202524.4%5.48%50202567.9%3% 120256143.9%100%2A191.1%5A75% 5.3 202520252.5%20240.9%5.620252.1%3.7% 20241257.0%2025654.3%5.52025672.0%40.0%77.1%40.5% 2025670%5.B 2024121.96%202561.97%2024121.55%202561.58%5.7 52 20251.8%20240.6%5.C20251.2%3.1% 51 2025739.7%5.95.10 202487.9%202587.8%5.8 53 20252.4%20235.12 20242.18%20252.48%5.11202560.40% 2025235%5.13 1%5.14 4854183,900 20245.155.16 1.2.3.4.20258 56 5.E20252202720.92%1.30% 1.2.3.4.20258 202438,73012.2%3.9%2025640,23012.0%5.D552.37%202562.16% 99%2.42%3.25% 57 1.20252(Monte Carlo) 2. 3. 202533.2%3.6%9.3%9.4% 2025312% 202530.10.91.83.2 202532% 2025 50% 5.4 CCyB5.F(IRC)IRCCCyB(i)(ii)59(iii)CCyB60CCyB61 4 20252IRCCCyB62IRCCCyB1%20253IRCCCyB1% (CCyB)20241018CCyB0.5%58 20259CCyB 1.CCyBCA-B-1CCyBCCyBCCyB2.202441CCyB2.5%CCyBCA-B-1 5.G 4 Capital IQ1,145653,66713,96066 63 B4.1 64 B4.1 670100 B4.21038%50 1268 B4.3 69 350%30%10% 7.807.757.857.757.85 199941 3M1M2M1M3M2 ©2025 www.hkma.gov.hk 香港金融管理局 8255: (852) 2878 8196: (852) 2878 8197: publicenquiry@hkma.gov.hkwww.hkma.gov.hk