快速零售投资达到顶峰；加速人工智能应用

Quick commerce investmentpeakedout;accelerating AI adoption Target PriceUS$209.40(Previous TPUS$210.30)Up/Downside20.6%Current PriceUS$173.68 For 2QFY26E(March year-end), we expect AlibabaGroup Holding (Alibaba)todeliver revenue growth of 2% YoY, broadly inline with Bloomberg consensus, withcustomer management revenue (CMR) and Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG)revenue growthstandingat 10% and 30%, respectively.Although wehavebakedintheRMB37.4bn impact onadjusted EBITA from investment inquickcommerce(QC) business, we believe the investmentshould havepeakedoutin 2QFY26anditsimpact on earnings will start to fade in 3QFY26E as QC is on track to halveunit economics loss by end-Oct 2025. We fine-tune our target price to US$209.4(was US$210.3) to reflect adjustmentsin earnings forecast.Alibaba remains oneof the key beneficiaries under the AI theme, in our view, and both its capexinvestmentand investment to accelerate AI adoptioninternally and externallyshould propel revenue and earnings growth over the longrun. Maintain BUY. China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk 2QFY26 preview.We estimate Alibaba achieved 2QFY26 revenue ofRMB241.2bn, up2% YoY,broadly inline withBloomberg consensus,andadjusted EBITA of RMB6.1bn, down 85% YoY due to the investment in QC,and investment to accelerate AI adoption in variousAI-native and AI-empoweredapps such as Quarkand Amap.We are looking for non-GAAPnet profit of RMB11.2bn for 2QFY26, down 69% YoY. Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Quick commerce investment likely peaked out.For Alibaba China E-commerce Group (ACEG)segment, we are estimating 10% YoY growth inrevenue, and adjusted EBITA ofRMB8.7bn, within which wehavebaked inanRMB37.4bn drag from investment inQC. Within ACEG, we are lookingfor 10% YoY growth for CMR, backed by 8% YoY increase in GMV andincrease in take rate driven byarise in penetration of Quanzhantui. Stock Data Cloudrevenue growth could further accelerate.We are looking for 30%YoY revenue growth for CIG in 2QFY26 (1QFY26: 26%), aided by boththeincreased adoption of AI-related products and digitalization demand. Inaddition, we estimate adjusted EBITA of RMB3.4bn for CIG, translating into8.8% adjusted EBITA margin (2QFY25: 9.0%). Although capex investmentmay see some fluctuationsbetweenquarters, thethree-year capex plan ofRMB380bn is well on track, in our view, and our forecast of 30% revenueCAGR for CIG overFY25-28E remainsunchanged. Accelerating AI adoptionacrossbusinesses.Alibabaisescalatingitsinvestment in AI-native apps and AI-empowered apps, such as Amap andDingTalk, whichwilllikelydrag near-term earnings growth but should benefitlong-termrevenue and earnings growth, in our view. We estimate adjustedEBITA loss generated from All Others segment to reach RMB5.0bn in2QFY26, wideningfrom RMB1.4bn in1QFY26. Source: FactSet Revision of forecast and valuation We nudge up FY26-28E revenue forecast by 0.4-0.8% to factor in slightly better assumptionin revenue forecastforAll Others segment, while we cut FY26-28E non-GAAP net profitforecast by 5-15% to account forlikelywider-than-previously expected investment in QCbusiness, as well as escalated investment to support business development of AI-nativeapps and AI-empowered apps. Valuation: target price of US$209.4per ADS Our SOTP valuationislifted to US$209.4per ADS, which comprises: 1)US$88.5forACEG, based ona 12.0xFY28EEV/adj.EBITAanddiscountedback toFY26 at WACC of 11.0% (was US$89.7based on 12.0x FY28E EV/adj. EBITA);thetweak in valuationismainly driven by adjustment in segment earnings forecast;2)US$13.9for AIDC(was US$14.0), based on an unchanged 1.5x EV/revenue multipleon FY26E revenue forecast;3)US$81.0for the Cloud Intelligence Group(unchanged),based onan unchanged7.5xEV/revenue multiple on FY27E revenueand discounted back to FY26E at WACC of11.0%;4)US$14.9 for All Others(was US$14.6),based on an unchanged 1.0x FY26EEV/revenue multiple;5)US$11.1per ADS (unchanged) for strategic investments with a 30% holding discount. Our new SOTP-based target price translates into23.4/18.3x FY27/28EPE (non-GAAP). Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to th