下一个热点：明天的风险前线

partnerships. Unlike most catastrophe models, GCATSevere Thunderstorm Hazard Score utilizes hazarddata as recent as 2023, providing an up-to-date viewof severe convective storm frequency and intensity tosupport accurate underwriting and pricing. Guy Carpenter’s Kim Roberts and Cara Drago onmanaging catastrophe exposures in emerging“sleeper” regions For P&C insurers across North America, one of thedefining challenges of this decade is anticipating howthe risk landscape will evolve. Climate change, rapidpopulation growth and shifting severe weather patternsare creating new “sleeper” regions where catastropheexposures rise faster than traditional models or pricingassumptions reflect. · Climate change analytics suite: Incorporatesforward-looking climate science to assess naturalhazard risk through bespoke vendor catastrophemodel adjustments and forward-looking risk scores.The suite supports regulatory compliance, profitablelong-term underwriting and identification of sleeperregions.· Data augmentation and resiliency: Advances in remote imagery and artificial intelligence enableidentification of key data to build more resilientcommunities. Guy Carpenter’s partnership with theInsurance Institute for Business and Home Safetyhighlights the industry’s role in promoting resilienceand reducing risk. The implications for companies are profound.Large and small players in the industry must identifytomorrow’s hotspots today – before loss experienceforces reactive change. The path forward lies inleveraging proprietary analytics, emerging datasources and climate-informed insights to sharpenunderwriting, strengthen portfolio strategy andprotect capital. Together, these analytics enable companies tonot only respond to change but also anticipate it –translating scientific insights into business strategy. Historically, the focus has been on well-knownhotspots: California wildfires, Gulf Coast hurricanesand Tornado Alley severe storms. But vulnerabilitiesare spreading beyond these zones. Rapidly growingexurban communities in the Mountain West andSoutheast face wildfire threats once unique toCalifornia. Cities in the Ohio and Tennessee valleysare seeing severe convective storm losses escalate.Coastal communities on the Eastern Seaboard areexperiencing measurable impacts from sea-level riseand chronic tidal flooding, which can worsen stormsurge flooding and decrease property values. Strategic implications span the enterprise: · Portfolio planning: Pinpointing sleeper regionsenables balanced geographic diversification and helpsprevent concentrated catastrophe losses. · Underwriting guidelines: Bespoke scores andindices empower underwriters with granular data torefine terms, conditions and pricing in a competitive,volatile market. · Capital allocation: Climate-informed analyticsenhance reinsurance purchasing and capitalplanning, ensuring solvency and resilience understress. These sleeper regions are not fully priced intomarket catastrophe models, creating exposuregaps and unrecognized portfolio volatility. Earlyidentification is critical to maintain underwritingdiscipline, ensure regulatory confidence and gaincompetitive advantage. · Regulatory and stakeholder confidence:Demonstrating integration of forward-looking risktools supports compliance with evolving regulationsand builds confidence with boards, rating agenciesand investors. Guy Carpenter’s proprietary tools help insurersuncover and quantify risks often missed by standardcatastrophe models: As we survey the current industry landscape, onetheme is clear: tomorrow’s risk frontlines won’t looklike yesterday’s. Insurers relying solely on historicaldata risk falling behind as exposures shift. Thoseintegrating next-generation analytics are betterpositioned to navigate uncertainty, protect capital andseize growth opportunities. · Urban Conflagration Index: Identifies areaswith high structure density in proximity to areas ofelevated wildfire risk. This quantifies the growingvulnerability of densely populated neighborhoodsthat may lack traditional vegetated fuels but facesignificant loss from structure-to-structure burningunder extreme fire conditions. Kim Robertsis head ofNorth Americaperil advisory.Cara Dragois managingdirector,catastropheadvisory At Guy Carpenter, our goal is to help clients seearound the corner. Through bespoke, science-informed tools and our climate change analyticssuite, we illuminate tomorrow’s hotspots today – socompanies can lead in building a more resilientmarketplace. · GCAT Severe Thunderstorm Hazard Score:Measures hail, straight-line wind and tornado risk atthe county level using data from the National WeatherService, Storm Prediction Center and academic