《亚太地平线2025》第二部分：加强韧性

Knight Frank Asia-PacificHorizon–Part II This reportsynthesisesfast-moving developmentsunder Trump 2.0 and offers strategic guidance fornavigating the turbulence. May/June2025 “Occupier Outlook ”Our analysis shows that while the temporary tariffreduction provides companies with breathing room, the'China+N' strategy has become a standard operatingmodel rather than just a response to tariffs. We haveentered a time where corporate real estate strategy mustevolve from footprint expansion to operationaldurability and total-cost performance. This isn't acyclical adjustment, it's a structural transformation thatrequires entirely new approaches to portfolio planning,lease structures, and location strategy. Tim Armstrong Global Head of Occupier Strategy and SolutionsKnight Frank Asia-Pacific Whiplash to Resilience:Corporate Real Estate in the New World Order 1.1What’s new in Trump 2.0? In the New World Order, Introduction I 1.1 What’s new in Trump 2.0?1.2 Trump 2.0 and the shape of the New World Order 1.3 Trade War I under Trump 1.01.4 Legacy from Trade War I: ‘China +1’ strategies1.5 Trade War II1.6 Supply-chain aftershocks1.7 Growth under pressure1.8 Impact of Trump 2.0 scenario outlook Section II:Impact on Commercial RealEstate Leasing Activities (APAC) enters an era of structuraldecoupling and acceleratedregionalisation, corporate real estateleaders must rethink location models,leasing structures, and investmentplays with agility. This reportsynthesises fast-movingdevelopments under Trump 2.0 andoffers strategic guidance fornavigating the turbulence. the certainties that once underpinnedglobal trade and supply chaindecisions have unravelled. Trump2.0's aggressive tariff regime—encompassing a 124.1% effective tariffrate on Chinese mainland goods and100%on EVs before the 90-day pausetook effect—has redefined coststructures and exposed geopoliticalfragility at the core of commercial realestate strategy. As Asia-Pacific Whiplash to Resilience:Corporate Real Estate in the New World Order 1.3Trade War I under Trump 1.0 1.2Trump 2.0 and the shapeof the NewWorldOrder Introduction I 1.1 What’s new in Trump 2.0? 1.4 Legacy from Trade War I: ‘China +1’ strategies1.5 Trade War II1.6 Supply-chain aftershocks1.7 Growth under pressure1.8 Impact of Trump 2.0 scenario outlook Section II:Impact on Commercial RealEstate Leasing Activities Section III:Corporate Real Estate (CRE)playbook for a fragmented trade landscape Unlike its first incarnation, Trump 2.0signals a fundamental reordering of the globaltrade architecture, both in breadth and intensity.The current wave of tariffs now targets 57countries, far beyond the initial focus on theChinese mainland and Europeduring his firstterm.These new measures cover an expandedrange of goods—from steel and solar panels toEVs, automobiles, and lumber—and affect anunprecedented US$2.3 trillion in imports,generatingclose toUS$1 trillion in tax revenue.The effective tariff rate on Chinese goods hassoared from 19.3% to 124.1%, and globalexposure has widened with rates on the rest ofthe world jumping from 3.1% to 10.3%.However,this has since been reduced following the 12-Maytalks. The negotiated pause has cut tariffs onChinese mainland goods to 30% for 90 days,significantly de-escalating tensions that shouldpave the way for a new “phase-one” deal. Whiplash to Resilience:Corporate Real Estate in the New World Order 1.5Trade War II 1.4Legacy from Trade War I:‘China +1’ Strategies Introduction I 1.2 Trump 2.0 and the shape of the New World Order1.3 Trade War I under Trump 1.0 The wide-ranging tariffs imposed during Trump’s second term haveaddressed ‘China+1’ strategies, effectively narrowing loopholes.For manyeconomies in the region, this comes as a demand shock,butthe impact will bedisproportionate across the region. ‘China +1’ strategies gainedsignificant traction following US-China trade tensions in 2018-2019.While the proportion of Chineseimports fell significantly between2017 and 2024, world exportscontinued to rise as shifting tradelinkages mitigated the full effects ofthe tariffs. Southeast Asia (SEA) emerged as the top beneficiary,particularly Vietnam, as Chinesemanufacturers diversifying theirsupply chains doubled exports fromthe region. Demand for logisticsspaces soared in the region with rentsrising by an average of 17.2% from2020 to 2024. 1.4 Legacy from Trade War I: ‘China +1’ strategies1.5 Trade War II1.6 Supply-chain aftershocks 1.7 Growth under pressure1.8 Impact of Trump 2.0 scenario outlook Section II:Impact on Commercial RealEstate Leasing Activities Section III:Corporate Real Estate (CRE)playbook for a fragmented trade landscape Whiplash to Resilience:Corporate Real Estate in the New World Order 1.6Supply-chain aftershocks Introduction I Direct impacts Indirect impacts 1.1 What’s new in Trump 2.0?1.2 Trump 2.0 and the shape of the New World Order1.3 Trade War I under Trump 1.01.4 Legacy from Trade War I: ‘China +1’ strategies1.5 Trade W