2025年波兰写字楼市场的复苏

Q2/Q3 2025 knightfrank.com.pl/en/research Overview of Poland’s Office Sector: Leasing Market, InvestmentTrends, and Emerging Opportunities. KEY FINDINGS Prime global players are already returning to thePolish market taking advantage of accessibility tohigh-quality buildings at much lower prices than inWestern Europe. Office market is on an upward path with Warsawoffices being one of the most prospective in Europe. Capital values are low with strong growth potentialunderpinned by both expected rental increases andyield compression. Poland’s strong economy is fuelling office marketgrowth, with GDP set to rise by over 3% annually. In2025, the country is to reach USD 1 trillion in GDP,becoming the world’s 20thlargest economy. The occupier market is showing an ongoingimprovement with growing take up and stabilisingvacancy rates. OCCUPIER MARKETSNAPSHOT The Polish office market hasdemonstrated resilience throughthe pandemic, the post-pandemictransition, and a period of elevatedinterest rates. Its continued revival isunderpinned by stable fundamentals,including robust leasing activitysupported by solid GDP growthand the gradual returns to offices.Occupancy levels are furthersupported by constrained new supply. By the first half of 2025, leasing activityreflected this momentum. In H1 2025,total take-up reached 689,000 sq m, up15% year-on-year and only 3% belowthe record year of 2019. The market isalso stabilised by limited constructionactivity, currently at 343,000 sq mwhich is the lowest level in the past twodecades. Additionally, a number of officeproperties have already been repurposedor are scheduled for conversion, furtherconstraining availability. These dynamics are already visible invacancy trends. The national vacancyrate has stabilised at slightly above 14%,with Warsaw and the Tricity recordingthe lowest levels at 10.8% and 17.7%, 12 000 per sq m. This significant gap inpricing, combined with attractive yieldand rent differentials, positions Warsawas a highly compelling market offeringsuperior investment opportunitiesby comparison. Given the marketfundamentals highlighted earlier,we anticipate renewed interest frominvestors for core Warsaw offices. respectively. Average asking rents remainbroadly stable, with improvementsobserved at the upper end of the market.In Warsaw’s city centre, prime rents in thebest buildings currently range from EUR25 to 35 per sq m/month, with continuedupward pressure. Charles TaylorCEO The recovery is however uneven due tothe structural challenges that the sectoris facing. Prime assets have alreadyregained pre-pandemic occupancy byembracing hybrid models, modernworkspaces, and ESG compliance. Thistrend is most visible in Warsaw’s CBD,where vacancy has fallen to just 7.1%compared with 13.3% in non-centralareas, and take-up surged by 32% versus a3% decline across the city overall. Rentalgrowth in prime buildings has also faroutpaced the wider market, increasing bymore than 20% over the past five years.With the pipeline of new high-qualityoffice space severely limited, this upwardtrend is expected to continue. Investor interest extends beyond Warsawto regional cities, which offer high-quality, well-performing buildings atattractive prices, but with more limitedliquidity. In H1 2025, Stena Real Estateacquired two buildings in the High5ivecomplex in Kraków, Poland’s second-largest office market after Warsaw. „The resurgence of thePolish office marketis firmly underway.The combination ofimproving occupierfundamentals,constrained new supply,and renewed investorappetite is creatingmomentum. With primelocations leading theway, the office marketin Warsaw is set to offerattractive opportunities.” Prime yields are approaching 6% inWarsaw (and 7.5% in regional cities) andare expected to compress further asinvestors reassess risk versus investmentperformance with competition forhigh-quality assets as investor demandintensifies. As more capital flows intoprime real estate, demand is likely tooutstrip supply, reinforcing the trend ofyield compression. INVESTMENT MARKETSNAPSHOT Between January 2024 and June 2025,more than €2 billion was invested inthe Polish office market - more thanin any other sector. Warsaw is also thelocation of Europe’s largest single-office transaction in 2024 - the EUR280 million sale of Warsaw UNIT,which also remained among thelargest deals until H1 2025. The fundamentals indicate that theWarsaw office market resurgence isunderway, with prime locations set tolead the acceleration. The market remains liquid, with thenumber of transactions in H1 2025 stablecompared to the previous year. Whilesmaller deals continue to dominate,particularly for private capital andregional buyers, the share of large-scale transactions is growing as primeinvestors capitalise on early-cycleopportunities and relative value on a panEuropean basis. The mixed performance of the officemarket is creating opportunities acrossall risk–return profiles. Notably, the focusis gradua