伤亡：一个充满机遇的市场

Challenging U.S. casualty conditions demand a multipronged framework for success, say GuyCarpenter’s Chris Ross and Blake Berman by carriers for excess casualty. This decrease hascontinued in 2025, most notably in the high-excesssegment, where limits have come down by nearly20% YoY. The U.S. casualty space remains in a dynamichard market driven by increases in loss severityinfluenced by legal system abuse and economic andmedical inflation. The insurance industry continuesto implement proactive strategies across pricing,underwriting, policy language and legislatively to meetthis challenge head on and to ensure sustainability andprofitability going forward. Terms and conditions: The shift to non-admittedproducts continues, with E&S market occurrenceliability premiums growing by 17% in the first halfof 2025 versus only 8% growth in admitted writings.This is the seventh consecutive year of E&S liabilitypremium growth of 12% or more. With legal theoriespushing boundaries, carriers continue to respondby reducing breadth of coverage to ensure policiesprovide affordable protection for what is intended,especially in the more difficult legal jurisdictions. THE CASUALTY LOSS LANDSCAPE The sector continues to face uncertainty around theloss cost landscape. Legal system abuse remains achallenge, evidenced by a 67% increase in assetsunder management dedicated to litigation financingbetween 2019 and 2024. During this same timeframe,plaintiff spending on advertising increased nearly9% annually and the U.S. continues to have increasesin cost of care. This combination has fueled anoverall increase in loss severity, highlighted by a10.5% annual compound increase in the median sizeof the top 100 verdicts since 2014 – a trend that hasonly accelerated in recent years. Legislative efforts: The industry is focused onlegislative action to close loopholes and ensuretheir customers have access to affordable insurancecoverage with an insurance product that allowsthem to operate confidently. At present, 13 stateshave passed some form of litigation reform, with 20others having legislation under consideration. GUY CARPENTER’S PERSPECTIVE COUNTERING ACTIONS Guy Carpenter views today’s U.S. casualty marketas an ongoing adaptation to the evolving nature ofcasualty risk. Carriers are leading these efforts bytaking necessary steps to position their go-forwardportfolios for profitability. To ensure the long-term viability of the occurrence-based liability product, the insurance industrycontinues to use a multipronged frameworkcentered on four key areas: While there is risk, there are also opportunities,and those carriers and reinsurers that take ameasured approach to managing risk and donot overreact to current market noise are bestpositioned to take advantage of what we see as clearopportunities going forward. Pricing: As exposure to high-severity loss outcomesincreased, more premium per unit of exposurewas needed. The insurance sector reacted quicklyand has secured a cumulative exposure-adjustedpricing increase of over 155% since 2015. Pricing hascontinued to increase in 2025 with excess liabilityrates up 15% or more on average through mid-year. As a result, Guy Carpenter estimates that thecumulative rate increases achieved now exceed losstrend by more than 64 points in the last five years,more than making up for any deficiency.Limit reductions: With accelerating severity, Chris Rossis managingdirector, treatybroking, NorthAmerica.Blake Bermanis a fellow ofthe CasualtyActuarialSociety andmanagingdirector, NorthAmericanStrategicAdvisory Guy Carpenter works closely with our clientsand advocates strongly for reinsurers to useclient-specific assumptions grounded in individualcompanies’ underlying policy and claims data. Weare committed to ensuring our clients are optimallypositioned for success, and that the reinsuranceprograms we place allow them to capture theopportunities they see in this volatile marketlandscape. carriers are actively reducing volatility in theirportfolio by shedding capacity. Last year we noteda 30% to 50% reduction in average capacity offered