财政整顿对债务分配的影响

The Effects of FiscalConsolidations ontheDebt Distribution Francesco Frangiamore, Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone,Faizaan Kisat, and Pietro Pizzuto WP/25/201 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025OCT IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department TheEffects ofFiscalConsolidations on theDebtDistributionPrepared by Francesco Frangiamore, Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat, and PietroPizzuto* Authorized for distribution byVitor GasparOctober 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper estimates the effects of fiscal expenditure consolidations on the entire distribution ofpublic debt-to-GDP for an unbalanced sample of 192 countries over the period 1991-2021. Employing panellocation-scale models, we show that government expenditure cuts significantly lower the location (average) ofthe future debt-to-GDP distribution and its scale (variance), thus also implying a reduction in the uncertaintysurrounding public debt. Consequently, we uncover a downward sloping trend in the effects of governmentexpenditure consolidations across the quantiles of the debt-to-GDP distribution. These effects persist up to a 4-year forecast horizon, with the highest reduction occurring on the right tail of the debt-to-GDP distribution,defined as debt-at-risk. We also show that fiscal expenditure consolidations are more effective in reducingdebt-to-GDP when the debt levels are higher and when countries adopt a fiscal rule. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Frangiamore, Francesco, Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat,and Pietro Pizzuto. 2025. “The effects of fiscal consolidations on the debt distribution.” IMF Working Paper No.2025/201, Washington DC. The effects of fiscal consolidationson the debt distribution Prepared by Francesco Frangiamore, Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone,Faizaan Kisat, and Pietro Pizzuto Contents I. Introduction______________________________________________________________5II. Data and methodology_____________________________________________________8 III. Baseline results ________________________________________________________13IV. Mechanisms ___________________________________________________________16V. Heterogeneous effects of fiscal expenditure consolidations on public debt ratios anddebt-at-risk ____________________________________________________________18VI. Conclusions ___________________________________________________________22References _______________________________________________________________24 FIGURES 1. Global public debt-to-GDP and projected debt-at-risk ___________________________272. Illustrative example on how the location and scale coefficients affect the debt-to-GDP _27 3. Location and scale effects of fiscal expenditure consolidations on debt-to-GDP _______284. Quantile effects of fiscal expenditure consolidation on debt-to-GDP ________________29 5. Location and scale effects of fiscal expenditure consolidations on selected government budgetary variables ______________________________________________________306. Location and scale effects of fiscal expenditure consolidations on selected macroeconomic variables__________________________________________________317. Effects of fiscal expenditure consolidations on debt-to-GDP and debt-at-risk in countries32 8. Effects of fiscal expenditure consolidations on debt-to-GDP and debt-at-risk conditional33 TABLES 1. p-values for the test of significance of the difference between the effects of fiscalexpenditure_____________________________________________________________342. p-values for the test of significance of the difference between the effects of fiscal expenditure _____________________________________________________________34 ANNEXES A. Robustness checks_______________________________________________________35B. Additional results________________________________________________________47C. Descriptive statistics _____________________________________________________56 I. Introduction Public debt levels are significantly elevated worldwide and are projected to increase further and approach100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade (IMF 2025) (Figure 1, panel a). Furthermore, the risksassociated with these projections are skewed to the upside. Based on the debt-at-risk frameworkdeveloped by Furceri et al. (2025), it is estimated that in a severe adverse scenario, global public debtcould surge to approximately 117 percent of GDP by 2027. This level of debt has not been witnessedsince World Wa